The World Bank presented its report in which it released some data on growth forecasts for Latin America in general and for Argentina in particular. The past year has not been good locally, the economy shrank 2.5%. However, for 2024 the data is more optimistic.
The organization forecasts GDP growth of 2.7 points for 2024 and 3.2 points for 2025, for Argentina. In this way the country would be able to reverse the data from the 2023 report.
Even in the face of these figures, the World Bank does not leave the Argentine macroeconomic context to chance, as it recognizes that, given the advancement of Javier Milei’s policies, the macro scenario presents uncertain prospects. In political terms, the treatment of the decrees promoted by the Executive adds little certainty to the economic agents, for whom the volatility of variables (Country Risk, financial dollars, bonds) is the order of the day.
In the published report, the World Bank predicts, for the region in general, a growth in their GDPas well as provides for the decreases in the respective inflation ratesand lower interest rates from central banks as drivers of investment.
In the case of Argentina, the decline in interest rates has served to liquidate liabilities and in some cases to increase the flight to the dollar, each time generating an increase in the gap between the official dollar and financial dollars, which fuels speculation by of dollar holders who prefer to observe the market before liquidating.
Global outlook for 2024
In global terms, the organization is not very optimistic and even talks about a “bleak outlook” due to the high level of international and geopolitical conflict, taking into account that the war that Russia and Ukraine still face has not yet been resolved. It also refers to the inflation control that different governments are implementing and that the inevitable slowdown of economies, the soft landing, is what seems to be working, they argue from the World Bank.
The most advanced economies will grow by 1.2%, the United States for its part with a meager 1.6% by 2024 and the eurozone with a growth performance of 0.7% over the same period. The values for emerging economies are very different, showing figures of 3.9% in 2024 and 4% in 2025.
In the case of China, this economy shows slow but sustained growth of 4.5%. However, the organisation’s chief economist, Indermit Gill, is concerned about the moderate growth of this emerging power, including conflicts in the Middle East and climate change, as well as the impact on international trade and food supplies in Worldwide.
Once again, the escalation of international warmongering does not worry either this organization or the authorities of the countries involved since it could affect international trade, but also energy supply, as in the case of Europe and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Gone are the global growth predictions of yesteryear, Gill stresses there needs to be “a major course correction” so that the 2020s are out of the picture “a decade of wasted opportunities”.
Source: Clarin
