Inflation in 2023 closed at 211% and for market analysts also this year The record will once again be above 200%.
The data comes from the survey of market expectations (REM) carried out month by month by the Central Bank (BCRA). There, leading market consultants expect a 25% increase in the consumer price index (CPI), in line with December’s 25.5%. Throughout 2024, the estimate reaches 213%.
REM forecasts indicate that inflation will remain in double digits for almost the entire first half of the year. It will reach 10% in May and only in June will it exceed that threshold a projection of 8.3%.
This high inflation will coexist with a decline in activity. REM anticipates a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 2.6%. This worsening is concentrated in the third quarter.
As for the dollar, an official exchange rate of $870 is expected for February. And they estimate that it will come $1,296.7 in June.
Unemployment is also expected to rise, compared to 5.7% in the third quarter of last year to 7.5% in the first quarter of 2024.
For this year it is estimated that the value of exports (FOB) will reach 83,952 million dollarswith imports of 69,372 million dollars. If this prediction were to come true, Argentina would go from a deficit of 8,000 million dollars in 2023 to a surplus of $14 billion this year.
As for the primary fiscal deficit of the national non-financial public sector (SPNF), consultancies believe the adjustment will be larger than expected a month ago. AS the forecast is moved to $666.4 billion by 2024, which contrasts with the $928.9 billion deficit forecast in the previous REM.
Source: Clarin
