The Government will implement a new measure with repercussions on pockets. Starting this Monday, the train and bus fare will increase by 45% in AMBA, one of the elements that will continue to put pressure on inflation in January and could contribute to increasing it set at 25% monthly, a level similar to the record achieved in December.
The new tariff was supposed to come into effect on January 1, but was ultimately postponed until tomorrow. This way the minimum value of the group will go from $52.96 to $76.92while that of the Mitre, Sarmiento and San Martín railway, from $25.72 to $37.38and that of Roca, Belgrano and Urquiza, of $ 33.29 to $48.38.
Since Javier Milei took office, there have been increases in prepaid bills, petrol, and the Fair Prices program ended, while increases have been authorized in transport and energy. corrected “repressed prices”. The plan is to unblock the suspended increases and reduce subsidies to eliminate the fiscal deficit.
But this combination, added to the December devaluation, further accelerated inflation and caused a sharp decline in consumption and real wages. In December, the INDEC CPI was at 25.5% monthly, the highest record in 33 years, explained in a way measured by food (29.7%), transportation (31.7%), and health (32.6%).
In this context, the Government evaluates the next steps. After the public hearing on gas, which could lead to a vote increase of up to 700% between February and April, it will take place this week or next the hearing to review the cost of transport and the level of subsidies, which today is 90% (only 10% covers the ticket).
The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, is in a hurry to reduce these expenses thanks to the agreement reached last week with the IMF, according to which the cut is expected to pass through administrative subsidies, transport and energy, discretionary transfers to the provinces and public funds businesses. and fewer public works.
The Ministry of Transport has yet to carry out an overall review of the tariff and define an update criterion. Next Tuesday there will be a meeting with the entrepreneurs who will ask for the recognition of a $800 technical fee in December and upgrade subsidies, and another with the UTA union to define joint agreements.
Since July, Sergio Massa had ordered monthly increases in transport tickets adjusted to INDEC inflation, but after the PASO defeat these were suspended and the rule became invalid in December. Now officials are considering a scheme also indexed to the CPI, but with bimonthly adjustments.
The idea is to establish, starting from 1 February, a tariff in the AMBA equivalent to that of the urban agglomerations in the interior of the country, where the ticket varies between $85 and $500, depending on the region. The expectation of business people is that the bus ticket will cost between $250 and $300.
Although some economists believe that the increase in transportation in the AMBA would have a neutral effect on the INDEC CPI because it would be offset by small adjustments in the rest of the country, LCG and most analysts expect inflation of 25% in January for the impact of that and other objects, along with the “second round” effect.
These levels of price inertia raise questions about the exchange rate and wage strategy. With an official dollar running at 2% monthly, the government has established a sort of “exchange peg” that, if maintained over time, would lead to a new jump in the price in the face of escalation in prices, according to analysts.
On the other hand, if wages they don’t keep up with inflationAs is already the case, the effect of the recession and the possible “wage anchor” will cause a loss of purchasing power of at least 10% over the summer, according to Ecolatina. In this context, inflation could slow down due to the collapse in wages.
On the other hand, if unions could offset the impact of joint ventures or companies that raised prices, the “distributive supply” could accelerate inflation to 400% in the year and the trading strategy would be complicated even in the case of a new devaluation and shift in the exchange rate, according to the consultancy firm Suramericano.
Source: Clarin
