Mass consumption ended 2023 on the rise, but the forecasts for this year are negative

In 2023 mass consumption ended with a positive result: Sales in supermarkets and self-service recorded an average increase of 2.4% in the cumulative annual figure, after recording an increase of 1.4% in December. However, this year the price stampede that occurred after the devaluation is expected a serious accident in supermarkets and self-service sales.

Last year’s result, despite the height of electoral ferment, was even higher than that of 2022, when sales closed the period with an increase of 1.9%, according to data processed by the specialized consultancy firm Scentia.

Behind the average, however, the behavior of the commercial channels was rather uneven: in a trend that was recorded for almost the entire year, there was greater dynamism in the large chains (they grew by 9% per year compared to 3.5% drop in self-managed businesses). services) and from a geographical point of view, Interior generated the highest sales volume (4.6%) compared to an annual decline of 0.7% in the AMBA area.

In particular, in December, explains Osvaldo del Rio, owner of the consultancy company, “a different dynamic occurred again between the channels given that supermarkets, even if they slowed down, maintained the positive trend, equal to 5.9% on this occasion and Self-service stores, after three positive months, dropped by almost 3%in line with the behavior of the rest of 2023 and part of 2022,” he explains.

The consultancy firm’s December numbers prove it The basket of alcoholic drinks was the only negative among supermarket shelves and only Food and Impulsive baskets, such as snacks and sweets, tested positive in Self-service.

The higher sales in supermarkets are explained by the price difference that existed (until December) with local shops, where price agreements (Right Prices) failed to arrive. And also for the promotions or discounts that chains usually apply based on their commercial strategies.

Sales have managed to maintain themselves despite the corrosive power of inflation which closed the year with an increase of 211.5%. While food and drinks closed with a level higher than general inflation: 251.3%, according to the INDEC. Scentia’s measurements, particularly in mass consumption scenarios, showed a weighted average price increase of 217% per year.

Despite the price surge that occurred in December (25.5% according to the INDEC), the annual average of sales was positive thanks to the tendency of consumers to purchase products faced with the constant loss of weight value and as a mechanism to combat inflation.

However, This year, after the change of government and the liberalization of prices, the forecasts are negative on the evolution of sales.

According to the projections of an economic consultancy firm that analyzes Scentia data for 2024 there would be a contraction of approximately 7% for consumption. “This would imply remaining at levels 6% lower than those of 2019, the worst year in the historical series that we measure,” del Río explained.

Already in January, a sample was seen. A survey by consultancy firm Focus Market of 680 self-service stores across the country, recorded a decline of 2% In the first week of January compared to the previous week and by 18.3% compared to the same week of the previous year.

“Sales volumes are starting to worsen. Frequency and visits to stores are lower than at the beginning of December 2023,” explains Damián Di Pace, director of Focus Market.

SN