In the last round of the week, the cash-counted dollar broke the ceiling of 1,300 dollars and closed at $1,305. With this the gap against the wholesale dollar increased to 61%which increases market doubts about the government’s strategy of keeping the exchange rate low.
While the MEP dollar stabilized this Friday $1,251the blue dollar fell 20 pesos and ended up in $1,220, so once again it lags behind financial dollars.
CCL has practically doubled in price in the last three weeks. Since December 27, it has increased by 47% and the gap has gone from 9% to 61%. The peso’s negative real rates, accelerating inflation and the perception that the official dollar is once again lagging prices, along with the government’s difficulties in implementing promised reforms, conspire to keep the currency rising.
In the last few hours it has added to this pressure from importersthat to obtain the dollars that the previous government withheld from them they prefer to turn to the CCL rather than accept the BOPREAL, the bond with which the economic team tries to repay those debts.
From Aurum Valores they point out that the week ends with free exchange rates increasing between 13% (MEP) and 15% (CCL). “Although some monetary parameters may indicate that these are high values for the stock of circulating pesos, the lack of incentives to position oneself in pesos (sell dollars), with very negative real rates, makes one perceive that “At these levels it is not possible to get supply to put downward pressure on prices.”
The 61% gap is a risk to the government’s plans because The more it grows, the more reluctant exporters will be to continue the liquidation and the most willing investors will be to resort to cash with liquids. And the situation could get even more complicated if the gap remains high into April, when the soybean crop is expected to begin liquidating.
For Consultatio “the fact that the government has maintained practically all the exchange rate restrictions introduced by the previous government even when the gap reached 9% is not a good sign”.
“Today, With a gap above 50%, the exit from the trap seems much further away, more expensive and more uncertain. In this context, promoting thedollarization of wallets with surplus pesos is the most obvious option,” underlines Consultatio.
Analysts underline that “to this context we must add the return Dollarizing rhetoric in recent days. After suspending all reference to the issue for a time, recent comments by the President and some of his officials ratifying the closure of the BCRA revivedollarization as a government goal and clearly play into the CCL tension.”
Despite the pressure on the foreign exchange market, the Central Bank has grown along with others 116 million dollars and it’s already needed 2,230 million dollars since the start of the year.
Source: Clarin
