The Central Bank remains on the path of accumulating reserves: in this round it has purchased more 133 million dollars and he has already bagged So far in January, $2.35 billion and $5.2 billion have been spent since the devaluation in December, almost six weeks ago.
With this the reservations are already there 24,487 million dollars. They recovered 4.48 billion dollars from the floor they touched in November.
The series of purchases of the team led by Santiago Bausili has been supported because Central is practically the only buyer on the market. The reason is that until a few days ago importers maintained restrictions on access to the Single Market and Free Trade. But this has begun to change these days.
According to Portfolio Personal Investments (PPI), since last Friday the importers of food products, pharmaceutical products and “the rest” of goods (excluding energy and cars) who have requested the first SEDI (the import permits that replace the SIRA) have started to access the dollar.) December 27.
«As regards the rest of the goods, it is worth remembering that foreign currency will be granted for 25% of what is imported, while the remaining 75% will be granted in three equal parts of 60, 90 and 120 days. Therefore, It will be the first time that Milei management will begin to unlock importers’ access to the MULC, “being the last days of a demand practically monopolized by the BCRA.”
This situation allowed the Central to accumulate foreign currency. Economist Salvador Vitelli noted that, among stock years, this is the January with the best balance of dollar purchases on the foreign exchange market, with 2,240 million dollars.
The unknown that opens up is what will happen from now on with the reserves. From the consultancy firm Equilibra they propose that, although a notable improvement in trade in goods and services is expected in 2024, ““We do not know whether the $7.3 billion in net reserves (RIN) agreed with the IMF can be accumulated.”
Equilibra estimates that a recovery of the agri-currency is expected in the coming months 14 billion dollars. Added to this would be increased external sales of energy and mining. However, the consultancy emphasizes that “if the official dollar continues to decline by 2% monthly, “Producer-forecasted real income for April 2024 would be the lowest in a year.”
On the side of imports of goods, the combination of the rise in the exchange rate with the slowdown in activity means that the forecasts anticipate a drop in purchases abroad which would be around 15,000 million dollars.
Furthermore, Equilibra states this there will be a greater inflow of private capital (from direct investments but also from portfolio strategies), partially offset by greater external asset formation (fewer constraints). “It will be necessary to pay larger debt maturities (including the Treasury plus the BOPREAL, the bonus for importers), but fresh funds are expected from multilateral organizations.”
The objective agreed in the new agreement with the Monetary Fund provides for the achievement an accumulation of reserves equal to 10,000 million dollars since last December 10th, the day of Javier Milei’s inauguration. In that month, $2.7 billion had already been added thanks to increased purchases by the Central Bank. However, the battle is not yet won.
This year another $7.3 billion needs to be added. For Equilibra, the main conditions to achieve this goal are that the real exchange rate does not lag and that the capital inflow exceeds the outflow, for which it would be necessary to increase the shares.
Source: Clarin
