In November 2023, the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) recorded a decline of 0.9% in the year-on-year comparisonly by 1.4% compared to October in the seasonally adjusted measure, as reported this afternoon by INDEC.
In relation to the same month of 2022, nine business sectors that make up EMAE recorded increases in November, among which Mining Extraction (6.7%) and Hotels and Restaurants (3.8%) stand out.
The mining and extractive sector (6.7%) was in turn the one with the greatest positive impact on the interannual variation of the EMAE, followed by Agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry (3.6%).
For his part, six business sectors recorded declines in a year-on-year comparison, among which the Manufacturing Industry stands out (-4.8%), which contributes 0.9 percentage points to the interannual variation of the EMAE.
In the first eleven months of last year, the decline in EMAE reached 1.3%. Projections show that 2023 ended with an activity loss of around 1.5%.
At the beginning of last year, a sharper decline in activity was expected due to the impact of the drought. But as the months passed, the decline was mitigated by the recovery in domestic consumption. Given the escalation of inflation, Argentines have decided to stock up and increase their level of consumption.
From this year the positive effect of consumption will no longer exist. This is predicted by the projections of the Central Bank’s Market Expectations Survey (REM). a decline in gross product of 2.6% this year, which would signal a worsening of the recession.
Source: Clarin
