Thanks to the arrival of the El Niño meteorological event and its abundant rainfall, the area planted with soybeans has increased significantly in the current agricultural campaign and so has the production estimate. Now, with the addition of 200 thousand hectares more As initially expected, oilseeds will occupy 17.3 million hectares.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) estimates that the harvest will be achieved 52.5 million tons, the highest volume of the last four campaigns and the fifth largest production of the last ten. Of course, as long as rainfall continues to accompany the favorable development of crops.
In this sentence, Gross soybean product would increase by 126.8%.that is, it would add $9,896 million compared to the last cycle, reaching 17,704 million dollars.
Hand in hand with the increase in production, the soybean exports would grow by 61.5%. in the 2023/2024 campaign according to the BCBA, which represents 8,138 million dollars more than in the 2022/2023 campaign, reaching 21,368 million dollars.
Consequently, the collection of export duties and other taxes of the soy complex would increase by 84.6%.therefore, the national government would this year have a total of 8,301 million dollars coming from oilseeds, thus exceeding the previous campaign by 3,804. This would be the third highest gross in the last eight campaigns, behind only the record achieved in 2021/2022, when it reached $10,015 million, and the 2020/21 season in which it reached $9,164 million.
One surprising fact: in central areathe one with the highest productivity in the country, if the rainfall regime continues, this year soybean production will quintupleas reported by the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).
This is great news for the national government, which will be able to collect more foreign exchange this year in the form of withholding taxes from the soybean complex, the very tax the executive branch plans to raise in its tax bill. Fundamental law, a measure widely opposed by the agri-food sector and the governors of the producing provinces. For this crop, the so-called Omnibus Law establishes an increase from 31 to 33%. in export duties on its by-products, flour and oil (beans are already taxed at 33%).
So far, with 98.4% of the acreage under oilseed cultivation, plots are in excellent condition in most of the country, but the BCBA has clarified that to support estimated production future rains will be neededwhich will be essential to navigate the critical phases of defining the performance.
5 times more in the Core Zone
With five million hectares of soybean cultivation in the central region, the one with the highest productivity in the country, covering the south of Santa Fe, the north of Buenos Aires and the south-east of Córdoba, basically, the harvest estimate for the 2023 campaign / 2024 rose to 20.2 million tons in accordance with the BCR Strategic Guidance for Agriculture (GEA).
There the average yield of the crop is calculated 41.2 quintals per hectare against the 13.3 quintals obtained last year. In this way, production would exceed by 1.5 million tonnes what was expected at the beginning of the campaign when the rains were not yet so abundant and widespread. With this volume of water fallen, notes the GEA, “it it would exceed last year’s harvest by more than five times“, when only 3.9 million tons of soybeans were harvested.
Despite the fact that a week has passed without rain, the crops continue to develop favorably. 90% of first-class soybeans and 65% of second-class soybeans remain excellent to very good in the core zone. However, producers and agronomists agree that rain will be necessary from the first days of February so as not to compromise yields.
The crops are holding up well for now
“The crop will last well for another week without rain, there is still good moisture in the soils, but in February 30 to 40 millimeters will be needed to maintain yield potential,” BCR informants told Cañada de Gomez.
At Bigand they say that lower quality batches could suffer from stress if the expected high temperatures occur. There, yields of between 40 and 45 quintals per hectare are estimated.
“It is necessary for the rains to resume in early February to maintain the yield potential of 50 quintals per hectare,” they indicated. In Carlos Pellegrini and María Susana.
In General Pinto the crop is progressing very well and the potential is 40 quintals per hectare. In the area they point out that this break without rain can help to carry out pending phytosanitary applications and therefore reduce the pressure of end-of-cycle diseases. While in Marcos Juárez they calculate a yield of 40 quintals if the rains arrive in a few days.
For their part, in Rojas and Pergamino they highlight an excellent development of premium soya. However, “it is in the north-east of Buenos Aires that the difference in moisture content is most evident: there is already shortage and fear, especially for late-season crops,” warns the BCR.
Historic year
Due to the growth, both in terms of surface area and production, of summer crops such as soybeans, corn and sunflowers, it is estimated that Agricultural exports will grow by 11,112 million dollars this cycle compared to the previous one. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated at production of 136.4 million tons of cereals for this campaign, in what would be the second largest harvest in history.
The body underlined that “the agricultural sector will show signs of recovery in its contribution to the economy compared to the previous campaign, despite the significant drop in prices”.
He Gross Agroindustrial Product would reach the 33,129 million dollarswhich means an improvement equal to 1.3 points of GDP.
Source: Clarin
