Expectations for the last Bopreal race of the month: how it can affect the price of the dollar

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After the race won last week, The Central Bank published the last call of the month this Monday to the placement of Series 1 of the Bond Loan for the

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Reconstruction of a Free Argentina (Bopreal), which will take place on Tuesday and Wednesday. The organism aims to complete the allocated quota of 5,000 million dollars for this first phase of the constraint with which it intends to cancel the debt contracted with the importing sector in the previous administration.

After an unfavorable start, in the first four races of the month, The organization chaired by Santiago Bausili has already allocated 4,096 million dollarstherefore only in this latest version 904 million dollars would remain to be placed and there is anticipation in the market for that share to finally be placed.

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This is the latest placement of this “sweetener” tool for the import sector. On the one hand, this first series will accrue dollar interest at 5% per annum. On the other hand, subscriptions made until January 31, 2024 have other additional benefits: they are not subject to the PAIS tax and, starting from Thursday 1st, allow an additional 5% access to the MLC as long as the subscription represents at least 50 % of your total debt.

Implicitly, The agency does not rule out new tenders of this Series 1, even if this week’s will be the last with this type of additional appeal. The offer dates for Series 2 and 3 of this instrument have not yet been communicated, which will be communicated starting next week.

There is anticipation in the city for this new addition. If Central completed this planned quota this week. Added to this would be the fact that the import debt was finally lower than estimated since small and medium-sized enterprises will begin to have access to the market from next February 10, becoming one of the few “good news” the economic team must demonstrate the Javier Milei’s setback in Congress.

“The 2027 Bopreal was quoted at $67 on the secondary market, which means a starting dollar close to $1,250, almost equal to the CCL ($1,231). We hope participation remains high, hence the BCRA’s goal of placing $5 billion in the secondary market this instrument seems feasible,” said Fernando Marull, of FM y Asociados.

Fund manager MegaQM explained that if the $5 billion stake was completed, “nearly 15% of pending payments would be restructured”. “While this figure seems low, it would leave the debt balance in the range of $29,000 million, which is very much in line with historical averages financed in commercial operations,” they noted.

On Friday, the winning auction of this security was sufficient to decompress liquidity with the liquidation, but this Monday the effect of the withdrawal of the fiscal package from the discussion in Congress will have repercussions on the prices of the financial dollar, which once again rises by 2 ,7%. “The volatility of the CCL continues to influence the strategies of financial speculation on the interest rate, which generates a strong outflow of peso instruments. Finally, we do not rule out that to subscribe to BOPREAL, companies withdraw pesos from other investments, which could influence the prices of peso securities,” they explained in the PPI.

SN

Source: Clarin

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