After the first month of the Milei era, the Central Bank recovered: bought dollars again for his intervention in the free foreign exchange market. The organization concluded the first round of the month with signings for 85 million dollars. They will thus try to maintain the positive streak, after closing January with record purchases for 3,273 million dollars.
In a cycle marked by the debate in Congress on the Omnibus Law and on the definitions of the Monetary Fund on the performance of the economy and the exchange rate, central reserves closed with a decrease of 600 million dollars, at 27,070 million dollars, for the payment of interest to the international organization.
Last Thursday, the International Monetary Fund sent its first information report of the Milei era, in which it took as the government’s starting point a level of negative net reserves of $11.2 billion. In the first month of the year the Central would have managed to bring them back to 4.5 billion dollars.
As for Wednesday’s sales, at Centrale they highlighted that it was due “many legacy energy debt payments.” The market expectation is that the organization will be “more under pressure this month”, due to the normalization of import demand access to the foreign exchange market.
“In addition to energy imports, whose access to the MULC is automatic, l 30 day period for imports of food and pharmaceutical products and 25% of the rest of the goods (except cars)”, they note in the PPI. “In the coming days we will be attentive to the level of private demand in order to be able to draw conclusions on the dynamics of the MULC. Persistent demand at these levels would indicate a greater flow of imports,” they added.
The Central was able to recover the rhythm of shopping after having closed the last tender for the first series of Bopreal with excessive demand, the instrument with which it intends to pay off the debt acquired with the importing sector. The Municipality is now awaiting tenders for series 2 and 3 of this tool, which could be released in the next few days.
Meanwhile, in the parallel market, after the pause of the last few days, the financial dollar has started to rise again. The MEP dollar, the only legal alternative on the market for retail savers, jumped more than 5% and ended at $1,235.43. Thus, the MP was once again quoted more expensive than the blue dollar, which remained at 1,195 dollars. Meanwhile, liquidation liquidity, the way companies use to become dollars, has increased, but at a slower pace: it closed at $1,280, up 2.5%. since its previous closure.
The growing backwardness of the official dollar puts pressure on the gap with respect to accelerating inflation. “Speculation on the exchange rate continues to be fundamental, the minute after minute of the approval or otherwise of the Omnibus law becomes the protagonist of the week. For doubtful investors, the dollars continue to be the most chosen hedging instrument”, said Priscila Bruno, of Rava.
In the equity segment, Argentine stocks began the second month of the year on the rise, accompanied by a better climate on global markets. The Merval index advanced more than 3% and has already recorded a 40% improvement in 2024. Dollar bonds, however, presented mixed results. The country risk rose to 1,959 points.
Source: Clarin
