From the Omnibus law to the combi law: entrepreneurial disorientation

For Javier Milei the private sector It is the most powerful force that mobilizes the economy. He presents it as a personal crusade and most entrepreneurs embrace this vision: they reward the decision to leave “the Argentina of decadence” behind with praise.

The labor reform, stopped in Justice, was also applauded. And barely mentioned Large investment incentive regime included in the Omnibus law. But the results are worrying.

“Milei’s only mandate is to fix the macro situation,” they say almost in chorus, admitting a very fragile institutional context. In exclusive private talks organized by funds and banks in Punta del Este, Carlos Melconian recognizes that “the main element is cultural oxygenation of Milei“The work he has done is very important.” Even if she notices it immediately “ideas and tools” can burn you.

By the way, the negotiations and debate in Congress on the law were focused on unprecedented interest in economic power. “Hyper-presidentialism does not exist, except when there are disciplined majorities in both houses. This is not the case and, consequently, the President’s overreach in setting the course. But let’s not continue with the abuses, Congress is also in charge”explains Ana Maria Mustapic, professor at the Torcuato Di Tella University.

From Washington, economist Eugenio Díaz Bonilla says investors will tell him when They go to Chile and talk to him about business and when they get to Argentina they only talk to him about politics.. From their point of view, macroeconomic stability and political stability are key.

One direction in Rome

Flavio Cattaneo, global CEO of Enel, understood this when, in a brief meeting in Ezeiza with Javier Milei, he canceled the sale of Edesur. He commented on it in Rome at the energy leaders’ conference and created for Milei a Appointment next 11th with his admirer, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

As for Congress, there were points that stuck and moved millions, such as biofuelswhich pits powerful oil companies and sugar mills against oil companies amid accusations of “suitcases and suitcases” from the President’s followers who are lobbyists for both parties.

An analysis by expert Claudio Molina shows coincidences in the Executive’s project with those of a large segment of the opposition, including the left. The central one is that defers importation or protection for 18 years and jerks occur due to the percentage of mixture present in the dispenser.

In companies, few want to speak out loud and slip in something that seemed buried: “In this government There are very curious people who like to know about everyone’s life and work.“, they underline, aimed at spies in the service of any political color.

Of course, there is a dividing line between healthy companies preparing to spend a long winter with restrictions on production lines and exports and others with financial problems and too exposed to the domestic market.

When do you reach the floor?

Some, faced with declining sales, are expanding their branches to seek more volume. “One must make noise when others are silent”, releases Daniel Saramaga, owner of Patagonia Flooring, who has doubled his investments.

Coto opened in Cariló, La Anónima spreads to Neuquén. Others wonder when you hit the floor when you fall. Auto parts manufacturers say they have it received reductions in part volumes to be delivered, the banks speak of a slight but persistent increase in bad debtscosmetics and household appliance companies collapse in orders.

Airlines confess to living the worst January in ticket sales for decades, both in domestic and international flights and what is observed in the packed planes are the people who anticipated it.

Similar is the case with construction, which is a edge of collapse in the face of a public work left without funds. In this area they celebrated that at the last minute they launched the reversal of the North Gas Pipeline, entrusting the work to Techint and Sacde, of Marcelo Mindlin.

Ernesto Kohen, president of the Argentine-Swiss Chamber, summarizes the state of mind of these groups ranging from Nestlé to the Holcim cement factory, in “optimism and expectations.”

But Alejandro Reca, owner of San Ignacio, the only exporter of dulce de leche in Europe, speaks of tension between a market in which ice cream shops have reduced orders by 30%banks do not increase financing limits despite inflation and Argentina “does not have agile institutions that help exports”.

When they present their complaints, the Ministry of Economy assures that there has rarely been a president so determined to get closer to zero deficit. “Milei’s commitment is absolute”, they call them. They explained it there, though The Omnibus law was passed to Combithey do not give up the triple anchor, fiscal, monetary and currency.

Another curiosity. Those who frequent Luis Caputo escape the fact that if his arrival in the Government had been aimed at obtaining new funds, there was even talk of 15 billion dollars, which the possibility is excluded. “Here we won’t take on any new debt,” he declaims, recalling the painful role of an Argentina with an outstretched hand that always asks for money. They are convinced of it Debt is the result of the deficit and we can get out of it without a deficit.

On the other hand, Wall Street takes it for granted that Argentine debt is a ““insurmountable problem” and that the only alternative is a “Blackboard” exit, tying payments to the country’s growth, which according to the IMF would begin to be seen in 2025 with a 5% recovery. Confidently.

At the Casa Rosada we see that weekly inflation is decreasing. They respond that these changes “They bring pain, they take care of people”, as they said in a supermarket chain when protesters were asking for food. They asked the government to efficient and fast channel.

And it was the starting point for changing the distribution of food towards institutions, bypassing the social movement and giving power to evangelical churches and Caritas.

At the Ministry of Human Capital they justified the delay in the reaction by saying that they had to order it from the Ministry first It had 60% political positions and an organizational chart with so many functions that it measured 4.5 meters long.

A presidential tour will follow next week dominated by secrecy. Milei will travel to Israel on Monday. A meeting is planned between the president and Benjamin Netanyahu and a visit to the Western Wall and the areas affected by the October 7 terrorist attack.

Mario Montoto, head of the chambers of commerce of the two countries, underlines the value that Milei’s visit has for Israel in this context of enormous geopolitical tension. “It opens up a lot of opportunities,” he predicts.

Meanwhile, it has been learned that people like Guillermo Nielsen, appointed ambassador to Paraguay with burning issues on the agenda, such as Hidrovia and the debt for Yacyretá, They would be on the substitute bench. Like Don Diego de Zama, the character of the brilliant Antonio di Benedetto, they could become victims of waiting.