Gone are the abundant rains of November and December that generated the El Niño phenomenon and which generated expectations in the countryside and in Javier Milei’s government of obtaining a record harvest. After a January with little rainfall, Today the photo of the harvests is different.
Last week’s high temperatures, which exceeded 38 degrees for several days in the main producing region, They hit soybeans at the most delicate moment of the critical period. Sixty percent of the soybeans are filling the kernels (defining the final yield) while the rest are going through pod development.
“High-grade soybeans were doing very well until this week, when the heat and lack of rain started showing up in lower-grade lots. And that’s happening across much of the central region. The Outlook of a great campaign begins to fade and the first link to give way is the low-quality soils, where marked stress and yield loss occur.The status of high-grade soya in the central region suffers a significant setback.
“For the first time, regional circulation conditions completely neutralize the positive influence of El Niño,” said climate consultant Alfredo Elorriaga.
According to the Rosario Stock Exchange, last week 90% of soybeans in very good to excellent condition increased to 65% in soils of lesser agricultural suitability located in the central area. And there are regular, bad lots on 10% of the soybean acreage, when a week ago there were none.
“If the situation does not change within 15 days, what happens today in bad soils will also happen in good soils and the harvest will collapse,” the Rosario entity warned.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) estimated two weeks ago that the harvest would reach 52.5 million tonnes, the highest volume of the last four campaigns. And exports of the soybean complex (beans, flour and oil) are expected to increase by 61.5%, which represents $8,138 million more than in 2022/2023, reaching $21,368 million.
Now, with this new scenario, this initial projection could decrease. In any case, the harvest is still high compared to last year, hit by the worst drought in 100 years.
The good news is this The rains are coming this week and temperatures would drop in the central region of the country, giving crops a break.
To all of this Added to this is the drop in international prices.. Soybeans are trading at $440 on the Chicago market, the lowest value since November 9, 2021.
“The decline in soybeans mainly comes from low demand for US exports from Chinadue to internal problems in its economy”, began Belén Maldonado, market analyst at the Rosario Stock Exchange.
“In addition to the fact that a large South American harvest is expected, given that, despite the decline in Brazilian production, the increase in Argentine production would more than compensate for it,” he added.
Settlements
After a drought-marred 2023, the pace of on-field clearances is off to a better start this year.
In the month of January, agricultural companies liquidated $1,522 million, which represents a 64% increase compared to the same month in 2023 and a 22% improvement compared to December 2023.
This is indicated by the latest report from the Chamber of the Petroleum Industry of the Argentine Republic (CIARA) and the Cereal Exporters Center (CEC).
Source: Clarin
