Before the first inflation data of the year is known, the city’s economists have made their bets: those who participated in the survey of market expectations compiled by the Central Bank estimated inflation of 21.9 for January %. And for this month the CPI could slow to 18%. For its part, the forecast is for higher overall inflation for the whole year and which could reach 227% in December.
24 local and international consultancy firms and research centers and 13 financial entities in Argentina are participating in the survey. In its report, the BCRA indicated: “Those who have forecast this variable best in the past (Top-10) forecast inflation of 21.3% for January, 16.5% for February and 207.4% in /a for 2024. Regarding the core CPI, the group of REM participants expressed their forecast for 2024 at 231.8% year-on-year.”
As Javier Milei himself anticipated at his presidential inauguration this year, the high inflation scenario will be accompanied by a decline in activity. In the January survey, REM analysts forecast a contraction in real gross domestic product of 2.6% for 2024, lower than the 2023 average, worsening the outlook by 0.3 pp compared to the previous survey. “This deterioration is concentrated in the first quarter, for which REM respondents reduced their forecasts by 0.4 percentage points,” the BCRA indicated.
In 2025 the economy would grow again: on average, this survey revealed an expectation of GDP growth of 2.3% for next year.
In the city there is hope that the BCRA will maintain its policy of negative rates relative to inflation. “Those who make up the Top-10 expected, on average, that it would be 108.13% in February.” The Badlar rate, which today is close to 109%, could close the year at 93.94% according to the average of the surveys.
Analysts believe that Santiago Bausili will keep his team creeping picket 2% until March, when the official dollar will be seen making a small leap to 944 dollars. The average of those surveyed expects the official dollar to surpass $1,000 in April, just as major crop liquidation begins.
For January next year. Respondents believe the economy will start with an official dollar of around $1,886, on average, meaning a total increase of 127%, compared to the $829.5 the dollar has on the wholesale market this Tuesday.
Source: Clarin
