Inflation in February: only increases in transport, petrol and prepaid bills set a threshold at 15%

After knowing the January inflation (20.6%), most economists estimate it The price index is expected to continue to decelerate in February, While not substantially. Based on all the increases that have occurred this month, especially in regulated prices such as transportation and tariffs, experts estimate that the increase could extend to 18% or more.

The consultancy firm LCG reminds us that “the effects of the price increase will be felt in February”. transportation in the AMBA: the subway, 250%; train tickets, 170% and bus tickets, 250%, which add to the drag left by the increases granted in mid-January.”

“We hope that, together, contribute almost 10 points of inflation”, estimates the consultant. “The rise again this month petrol and diesel for the correction of the Fuel Tax and the other increase in advance installments (+30%), which add up 1.3 additional points. With these three elements inflation would have a minimum threshold of 15% monthly, valued.

This consultant sees records close to 20% monthly for February and March. “Today the decline in demand (recession) and the opening of imports emerge as the main factors of price discipline,” he considered.

With data updated to the second week of this month, the Libertad y Progreso Foundation predicts that the national CPI will increase by 17.4% in Februaryexplains the economist Eugenio Marí, from that foundation. “Excluding the regulated ones, the national CPI would be around 15% monthly. The most important thing is that “The weekly change in the consumer price index fell below 2%, a pace comparable to that of October last year,” He says.

According to the consultancy firm ACM, the market forecasts for the next few months inflation still high, albeit with a downward trend. According to the REM, inflation is estimated to be 18% monthly in February, falling to 15.3% monthly in March and reaching single-digit figures by June.

“There still remain relative lags in various categories of the consumer price index compared to general inflation, particularly in Education; Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels and communications”said the consultant.

“On the other hand, the government has already announced a progressive elimination of subsidies for the next few months, which will result in increases in tariffs for transport and other public services, which will eventually affect the general level of prices,” he reflects.

Economist Hernan Lechter of CEPA also underlines the role that regulated prices will have in February. “At the beginning of the month, the rates of buses and trains in the order of 250% in the metropolitan region. In the rest of the country there have been increases of the same amount which will intensify with the announcement of the elimination of the Internal Compensation Fund,” he explains.

The economist adds that “furthermore, a 6.4% adjustment on petrol was applied in February – corresponding to the 2022 freeze – and Three increases of 4.4% (each) are expected in March, April and Maycorresponding to the update of the tax freeze during 2023,” he recalls.

It is known that the increase in fuel affects the prices of many other goods and services.