In January the economy registered a trade surplus of $797 million due to an increase in the level of exports of 9.6% compared to the same month of the previous year and a sharp decline – of 14.3% – in imports.
Yesterday, the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) reported that exports amounted to $5,398 million. An increase mainly due to the improvement in exports of primary products and manufactured goods of agricultural origin, which suffered a sharp cut in January 2023 due to drought. In turn, imports amount to 4,601 million dollars the decline in activity level.
The trade balance surplus contrasts with the deficit of $443 million in the same month in 2022. lower than that achieved last December, when it reached 1,018 million dollars.
For Elisabetta Bacigalupo, head of the macroeconomics sector of the consultancy company Abeceb, analyzes: the budget result is in line with what was expected. “January begins to mark the tone of what the year will be in terms of the trade balance: a significant surplus on the balance sheet, perhaps a little lower than expected but significant in a context where exposures are increasing and taxes are decreasing dramatically,” he says. According to the expert, “this trend will dominate the first half of the recession, with imports falling sharply, in line with the weakness of domestic demand and the level of activity”.“
“We expected a slightly higher trade balance, it was weaker on the export side of industrial manufactured goods,” he warns. “There has been a significant decline in exports of chemicals, plastics, etc. because input supply problems are reported in some companies,” she explained. And “in imports, except automobiles, capital goods, consumer goods and intermediate inputs fell sharply.”
Economist Claudio Caprarulo of the consultancy firm Analytica underlines another aspect: “It is the first month with the new SEDI system which replaces the previous SIRA and it may be that there are effects of liberalization of a demand that was restricted”, he says. “This may explain why the decline was not even greater; for example, the monthly change in imports was nominally positive and saw a slight decline discounting seasonality. To measure in January 2019 the interannual decline was 27%,” he added.
According to economist Gabriel Caamaño, the decline in the values and quantities of imports is “a bad sign for activity in January 2024. The recovery of exports goes hand in hand with the good harvest”, he analyzed on social networks.
As for the trade balance expectation for the rest of the year, Bacigalupo expects “a high trade surplus, probably close to 15 billion dollars which is the basis on which the government will purchase dollars and improve its net reserves position from negative levels,” he said.
At Analytica, meanwhile, they predict that “the fall will be sustained”. Lower levels of consumption and investment along with a more expensive dollar will offset the liberalization of the system that the government is undergoing, as we remember that payment for imports remains limited,” Caprarulo noted.
Last year, the country recorded a trade deficit of $6,925 million compared to a negative balance in 2022 of $6,923 million. Among other things, due to the shortage of monetary reserves, the government limited access to dollars to pay for imports between mid-2022 and last December.
Source: Clarin
