The values of the two main products exported from Argentina continue in free fall and they expect fewer dollars to enter the country.
This Friday, soybeans fell again and closed on the Chicago market at $416, the lowest value since December 8, 2020. Since the beginning of the year, oilseeds have lost 10% of their value .
Meanwhile, corn closed at $157 in the international market, touching its lowest levels since November 4. It marks a 13% decline compared to the first business day of 2024.
Both crops are influenced by the prospects of a large harvest in South America, especially Argentina and Brazil. For corn, there is a record harvest in the United States and high inventories, while in the case of soybeans, low demand from China also adds pressure.
Added to this is the decline in harvests due to the heat wave that occurred between the end of January and the beginning of February. According to the work of the Rosario Stock Exchange, corn production will be 57 million tons, 2 million tons less than estimated in January. And 49.5 million tons of soybeans will be threshed, 2.5 million tons less than a month ago.
Dollars
According to the Rosario Stock Exchange, the value of corn exports for the entire cycle would amount to $7,657 million, with an increase of $1,289 million in foreign currency earnings from the sale of the grain compared to the previous cycle. Therefore, the estimated growth of external sales in value could reach 20% year-on-year, being significantly lower than the increase in volume.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) estimated two weeks ago that the soybean harvest would reach 52.5 million tons, the highest volume of the last four campaigns. And exports of the soybean complex (beans, flour and oil) are expected to increase by 61.5%, which represents $8,138 million more than in 2022/2023, reaching $21,368 million.
Now, with this new scenario, lower production and prices, this initial projection could fall.
Main export products
According to Indec data, the sector’s exports lead the ranking in 2023. By volume, corn, soybean meal and crude oil reached the podium with 23.9 million, 17.4 million and 6.9 million tonnes, respectively .
In value terms, soybean meal was the product that brought the highest income to the country, with $8,249 million. This is followed by corn, with $6,212 million, and utilities, with $4,771 million.
Good news
Argentina’s total exports in January reached $4,498 million, an increase of 9.6% compared to the same month in 2023 (equivalent to $473 million), mainly due to the increase in quantities sold, grew by 211%. as there have been overall price declines of 9.4% this month.
The data comes from the latest report on foreign trade released by Indec.
One of the products that drove the increase was wheat. According to the organization’s data, 565 million dollars were sent abroad, 278% more than in the same month last year, hit by the ferocious drought that reduced the harvest.
Source: Clarin
