Although January is a seasonally low month for the real estate sector, this year has been even more peculiar: the change of government in December and the ups and downs of the macroeconomy have generated a picture of few real estate sales. Therefore, the sector remains awaiting how the market will evolve in the medium term.
In January, the total amount of the real estate sales deeds recorded a very slight increase: 1.8% compared to the level of a year earlier, adding 1,882 registrations. And in turn, she showed it a decrease of 58.7% compared to documents sealed in December (4560 written).
Another data that emerges from the notarial investigation is the real situation of real estate prices. In this sense, the average amount of the deeds was 75,999,357 dollars (90,710 US dollars according to the average official exchange rate): grew by 238% in one year in pesos, and in dollar terms it fell by 23.5%.
According to the president of the College of Notaries of Buenos Aires, Jorge De Bártolo, “the January data do not reflect large variations: there is a slight increase, but they are not high percentages. And perhaps in a few months there will be some slight declines year after year. However, like every beginning of the year, generates some expectations in the event that stimuli are generated in the macroeconomic order of the sector”he pointed.
According to the director’s vision, in a historical comparison, it is clear that – when there is mortgage credit – the real estate market doubles. «If in January 2018 there were 4,500 operations, almost 1,900 were with mortgages. And in 2024 the total does not reach 1,900, but there were less than 70 with credit. That is to say, a tool like this already provides the basis for what the entire business is today,” he noted.
Soledad Balayan, owner of Maure Inmobiliaria, analyzes the market behavior: “if you take into account the seasonal effect we are not seeing any strange behavior. What we noticed was that many sales were taking place before the elections and the expectation of a devaluation of the official exchange rate which would lead to an increase in the cost of the deed.”
“We must not forget that we continue with the exchange rate and that the month of January is the one in which the greatest number of people go on holiday and with the highest purchasing power. For this reason the number of January writes should come as no surprise. January according to the Scriptures is always the worst month of the year, if we add to this the uncertainty of a new government, record inflation in December, restrictions on exchange rates, the devaluation of the official exchange rate, let’s say it has sense.
“What we need to see in the coming months is if the slowdown in inflation continues and the exchange rate remains more or less stable. If this happens, it is possible that good expectations will be generated in the market and people will make decisions with greater certainty.”
According to analysts of the specialized site Reporte Inmobiliario, “the number of deeds in January was low, although seasonality must be taken into account and that these are closures that occurred in the midst of a highly contested presidential election process,” they said.
In in the province of Buenos Aires, however, the recessionary trend was already evident in the statistics. In the month of January, 3,422 sales were carried out, according to data from the College of Notaries of Buenos Aires. That number scores a drop of 11% compared to the numbers recorded in January 2023 (3,851), and a decrease of 74% compared to last December (13,129).
In any case, according to the body, the decline compared to December is explained, at least in part, “by the seasonality of the market”. “Beyond the ups and downs we are observing, and after 2023 remained at similar levels to those of the previous year, what we hope in these first months of 2024 is that better conditions may appear for the resumption of activity. As always, we believe that mortgage credit will be fundamental to be able to achieve this,” explained the President of the College of Notaries of the Province of Buenos Aires, Diego Leandro Molina.
Source: Clarin
