At the end of February the Central Bank interrupted the positive streak that had accumulated over the month had to sell 142 million dollars in the official market. This is the organization’s largest single-day sale since December 7, before the presidential change.
“Perhaps, as happened on the last day of January, the excess demand is due to release of foreign currency to pay the monthly import fee according to the system of 4 payments to foreign suppliers”, they indicated in Aurum Valores.
The Central thus accumulates in the second month of the year a positive balance of 2,354 million dollars and the more than two months that have passed since the devaluation of the last purchases on December 13th 8,492 million dollars.
International reserves, which had managed to recover by more than $6.5 billion, also contracted in the last round of the month. According to what was reported by the Central, this Thursday approximately 910 million dollars left its coffers, due to the payment of a bond by the Province of Buenos Aires for almost 350 million dollars.
“There is also seasonal flows relating to the end of the month and the expiration of futures contracts“market sources said.
Thus, international reserves stood at $26,685 million at the end of the month, on a day with conflicting versions of a new deal with the International Monetary Fund that would bring new dollars to the Central Bank.
In the market they underline that the good performance of the Power Plant in terms of recovery of reserves is due extraordinary factors, such as the increase in agricultural settlements due to the 80/20 scheme (80% through the official market and 20% through the free financial dollar) and the still limited access to the official dollar for importers.
“This positive balance was achieved by an unsustainable mechanism: limited access to imports was notable in the BCRA foreign exchange balance, where the quantity imported in December and January was well below the import average,” they wrote on Aurum Values.
The government is committed to ensuring that the fund reaches a level of positive net reserves. When Javier Milei arrived at the Casa Rosada these They were negative $11.5 billion. “The new government has agreed new objectives with the International Monetary Fund, setting the first objective for March this year to accumulate 6 billion dollars compared to December”, recalled the consultancy firm LCG.
“In addition to being close, accumulating 7.6 billion dollars by next September seems difficult and we will have to see whether the recessionary effect and the rise in the exchange rate will be enough to moderate the demand for dollars for imports while payments begin to regularize . “.
Although the Central Bank is working to normalize access to the dollar for imports, $1.5 billion in imports were authorized in January, when the normal level for that month is around $4.5 billion. The market estimates that since Milei took office, the debt for “new” imports is close to $5 billion.
Source: Clarin
