Into the labyrinth of personal investing to mitigate the loss of purchasing power so far this year Those who bet on pesos are beating those who bet on the dollar.
So far, both continue to lose to inflation, which February would have closed around 15%. But contrary to the Argentine temptation to always bet on the dollar, those who have made a fixed term in pesos in the past month are the ones who prevail.
Fernando Marull, director of the consultancy firm FMyA, underlines that “lFixed-term rates yielded 9.1% monthly and even if they lose to inflation, they beat the dollar and the rest of February’s peso investments.”
Trader Adrián Wibly also noted in his X Network account that “February 2024 was an excellent month for #CarryTrade.” In the same month, the MEP dollar fell -12.5% and the peso fixed term lost 8.8%, which allowed a dollar gain of 24.3%.
Those who managed to bet on the fixed duration of the UVA before the conditions changed – before the change of government these placements which adjust to inflation plus an extra point had an extension of three months, now the minimum has been increased to six months – They achieved a return of 22.3% and a dollar profit of 39.7%.
“UVA fixed term made 01/16 increased 55% in dollar terms”says Wibly.
Furthermore, the PPI underlines that”Merval closed for a month to forget. In February the index contracted by 4.0% to US$958. Measured in pesos, the main panel fell 19.5%, with stocks falling more than 30% such as Transportadora Gas del Norte (-33.3%), Central Puerto (-30.2%) and Cresud ( -29.0%). Only Comercial del Plata (+9.0%) closed the month in positive territory and Banco Macro (-0.8%) closed almost unchanged thanks to the strong increase after the presentation of the financial statements. The financial sector was the most defensive in the second month of the year, recording declines between -16.5% and -0.8%, while public services and energy were the most affected, with the aforementioned exception of the HOW.”
“Hand in hand with a strong appreciation of the exchange rate, the Merval measured in dollars has remained stable, in a context in which assets on the local stock market have fallen considerably. The market always moves forward and, in the case of local stocks, the change in government was incorporated into prices before the new administration took office. Since then, and until there are new positive factors, it is possible that the oscillations will maintain these levels, with large jumps and falls, since volatility is an intrinsic characteristic of the local market.”
For their part, ADRs, Argentine shares listed in New York, They also had a month with negative numbers. Out of 19, only 5 closed February in the green: Banco Macro (+20.77%), VISTA (+12.50%), BBAR (+5.06%), Galizia (+2.34%) and YPF ( + 0.09%). In the other cases, deep drops are observed: Edenor (-16.33%), Central Puerto (-15.68%) and Cresud (-14.61%) were the ones that lost the most in February.
Source: Clarin
