Just under three months since the arrival of Javier Milei at the Casa Rosada, the investors that they had sought in the period preceding the presidential change dollarize at any cost now, since the sharp decline in the parallel exchange rate in February, They wonder if they should take advantage of that drop to protect themselves again from a possible increase in the exchange rateearn with the peso rate.
The parallel dollar fell nearly 14% last monthWhich amortized savings of those who in the months of November and December went todollarize at any cost. “Hand in hand with the real appreciation of our currency, All peso bets were paid in dollars. The only exception was stocks, which were exposed to a hard currency correction,” explained Nery Persichini of GMA Capital.
In the universe of local currency investments, those linked to inflation were the winners undisputed “The CER benchmark in February increased by 22% in pesos and 47% in dollars, leaving other alternatives far behind. The few lucky holders of UVA fixed termsthe vehicle most reserved by the banks, they were the only ones who could exploit the potential of accelerating inflation”, explained Persichini.
Going forward, although the market seems to be convinced that the weight devaluation and the unification of the exchange rate are further away than expected days ago, the unknown remains, especially in a context in which “the benefit” of the last jump in the exchange rate in December has already evaporated compared to the inflation of recent months.
Juan Manuel Franco, of the SBS Group, underlined: “In terms of pesos, we believe that the section short CER it is not attractive at these levels and we prefer the central sectionwhich we believe will better capture relative price adjustments, given that implied bond inflation appears low for a few months despite the dampening effect of the recession and the erosion of real incomes.
“As for dollar-linked bonds, We believe that eventually a unification of exchange rates will take place, although the government could avoid the discrete jump in the face of the big harvest, so We prefer positions from 2025 onwards”, She said.
“It is the strict exchange controls that we believe maintain peso bond parities, so indications of potential exchange rate unification, reducing/eliminating controls, could result in capital losses,” Franco stressed.
Although the returns of the investments in pesos are interesting In this scenario of a flattened dollar, analysts recommend caution. “The CCL accumulates an appreciation of 30% from the highs reached on January 22, settling at the levels of the end of 2019, which suggests caution in positioning in pesos to make to carry”they stated in the IEB group.
Additionally, they noted: “The rate differential between CER bonds with negative rates and bondsIt’s difficult dollar with positive rates of 30% plays in favor of the fallibilization of the portfolio, although in the short term there may still be room to make rates given that the offer of CCL exporters, incentivized to liquidate due to the gap at levels of 27 % could continue to keep the CCL stable.”
For their part, Cohen’s strategy team considered the opportunity to invest in pesos in corporate bonds high quality. “For more conservative investments we suggest risks in TGS 2025 (IRR 10%), Pampa in 2027 (IRR 10%) and guaranteed YPF in 2026 (IRR 9%) and 2031 (IRR 9%). For slightly more moderate, We recommend Mastellone 2026 (IRR 10%) and Aeropuertos Argentina in 2027 (IRR 10%),” they said.
SN
Source: Clarin
