In the second survey of the year, economists participating in the Market Expectations Survey (REM) prepared by the Central Bank (BCRA) estimated monthly inflation of 15.8% for February. In that way They lowered their forecast by 2.2 points compared to the previous survey.
For March, a monthly inflation of 14.3% and for the year 210.2% (i.e. respectively 1.1 percentage points and 16.9 points less than the previous survey). Those who have forecast this variable best in the past and make up the “top-10” in this ranking, forecast inflation of 15.5% for February, 14.0% for March and 212.7% year-on-year for 2024.
For what concern Central IPCthat measurement which does not take into account seasonal variations in prices, the group of REM participants has placed its forecasts for 2024 in 206.3%.
In this case, the report disseminates the results of the survey carried out between on February 27 and 29 this year. The forecasts of 36 participants were taken into account, including 24 local and international consultancy firms and research centers and 12 Argentine banks.
The REM analyst group also predicted a decline in the level in its February survey Real gross domestic product (GDP) of 3.5%. With which, The outlook worsened by 0.5 points compared to the previous survey. “This deterioration was concentrated in the first quarter, period for which REM responders reduced their forecasts by 0.4 points,” the lender reported.
Meanwhile, those who make up the “Top-10” expect, on average, the economy to shrink by 3.3% for the year. It’s at in 2025 an average growth of 3.2% on an annual basis.
Another of the variables analyzed by economists is the unemployment rate. For the first quarter of the year, it was expected 7.7% of the economically active population (PEA). No changes compared to the previous REM).
In particular, the group of the ten best forecasters stated that in the same period the unemployment rate would be 7.2%. The group of REM participants instead forecasts an unemployment rate of 7.8% for the last quarter of 2024.
This is demonstrated by the experts’ forecasts for March a BADLAR rate by private banks of 109.08% TNA, equivalent to an effective monthly rate of 9.0%. Those making up the Top-10 expected, on average, this would be 107.70% in March.
About the evolution of exchange ratethe median of REM analysts expected the variable to be $860 per dollar for the March 2024 average (i.e., $49 lower per dollar than in the previous REM period).
For more assertive forecasters, the expected average nominal exchange rate for March is $864.1/USD. While the interannual variation in December 2024 implicit in the forecasts is equal to 150.9%. That is, 14 points less than the previous REM.
As for the foreign trade of goods – in the recessionary context in which the economy finds itself – analysts estimate for 2024 a total of exports (FOB) equal to 81,613 million dollars and imports (CIF) of 66,822 million dollars, both correcting downwards compared to the previous survey (-1,262 million dollars and -90 million dollars, respectively).
Finally, the projection of primary budget surplus of the National Non-Financial Public Sector (SPNF) It stood at $786 billion for the full year (-$95.1 billion compared to the previous REM). The average of the Top-10, in this variable, reaches a projected primary surplus of $2,025.4 billion by 2024.
Source: Clarin
