Although on the street the blue dollar tried to small bounce At the beginning of the week, the financial dollar again chained another downward wheel and liquidity with liquidation, the “thermometer” of the market price it fell 2.7% to near $1,000when it closes around the $1,020. Therefore, the gap with the official dollar remains about 20%.
Even if the reduction of the gap is a necessary condition for thinking about the elimination of exchange restrictions, Javier Milei himself said on Monday: “Since the economy is very demonetized, there are conditions to open stocks, but there is also the risk that liabilities will escape.” to the dollar and the hyper is triggered. “I prefer to play it safe and aim for mid-year.”
In City I agree. In Aurum Values noted: “Despite these declines in exchange rates, there is still We do not see clear possibilities for exchange rate unification in the short term given the exchange restrictions that still exist.”
For analysts Delphosthe “rearrangement” of financial variables has as much weight as stability on the political front in dealing with an opening of restrictions on the foreign exchange market.
“An ideal time window seems to be opening up to achieve a certain thing “tweaks” to the “containment” policies implemented at the beginning of the government – The accumulation of international reserves, the closing of the gap, the beginning of the strong liquidation of agricultural exports, the relative good global/regional environment and the success of Bopreal are some of the reasons that accumulate on the asset side,” they explained.
However, at the same time they underlined: “The lack of an internal political agreement still seems to be an obstacle, which will seek a prompt solution in the coming days. If a certain political framework conducive to the approval of some laws in Congress is reached, then the government would have to face optimal conditions For ease actions and proceed with greater liberalization of the foreign exchange market.”
For now, the Central Bank continues to buy dollars in the MULC. This Monday ended with a positive balance of 271 million dollars and so far this month it accumulates purchases of 1,370 million dollars. Since the exchange rate increase on December 13, the total stands at $9,862 million.
Nicola Max, of Critreria, underlined in this sense: “This purchase of foreign currency by the monetary authority creates pesos, together with the payment of interest on its remunerated liabilities. In these three months of government, the reasons for issuing pesos have been erased. the Treasury deficit, but these new pesos are sterilized through the issuance of Bopreal (an idea that the market attributes to Caputo, but which President Milei had already had previously), new remunerated liabilities (at negative real rates) and operations with the Treasury, which highlights the net buybacks that the BCRA makes on sovereign bonds, destroying pesos in the system.”
At the same time, the Central Bank, the body that presides over it Santiago Bausili, maintains the pattern of let the official dollar run at a rate of 2% monthly and it seems not to make drastic decisions regarding the economy’s reference rates, which have lost “negativity” due to the reduction in inflation but continue to lose strongly in the face of the jump in prices.
These two points worry the market. In PPI stressed: “The risk of the current exchange rate system is that the exchange rate is strong self-induced weight appreciation it is not validated by the market in a possible exit from Cepo, which could lead to a new one overcoming of the exchange rate and, consequently, to a new inflationary acceleration”.
At the same time, they warned. “The very high real exchange rate resulting from the devaluation (the highest since the release of Convertibility) has disappeared. The official dollar is now 3.5% below the post-Massa devaluation level after the STEP. With the moving anchor set at 2% monthly and the 80/20% pattern in place, the peso’s appreciation has everything to continue deepening in the near term. In extreme cases, it could get to the point where exporters are tempted to delay liquidation and importers to overstock because the official price is “good”, as happened in the previous government, which would conspire against stockpiling. reserves and the current exchange rate. scheme.
Source: Clarin
