The foreign exchange market on Tuesday will adjust to the surprising rate cut announced by the Central Bank on Monday evening. At the open, financial dollars rebound strongly and erase almost all of the fall accumulated until March.
Liquidity, the method used by companies to materialize, jumps by more than 4% and returns to 1,063 dollars; while the dollar or MEP stock market rises 4.6% from a lower level and remains at $1,026. Where for now the impact of the drop in rates is not being felt is on the street, where the price of the blue dollar remains around the 1,005 dollars at which it closed on Monday.
The upward movement in the foreign exchange market comes on a day when inflation data for February is expected, the Ministry of Economy faces a debt swap with the public and private sectors and banks have quickly rearranged their returns offered for fixed-term placements. .
The Central Bank has “released” the minimum rates applied for these placements and most entities have suffered a sharp reduction as they have gone from the 110% annual rate they had until Monday to a level between 70% and 75 %. This slight premium puts pressure on the parallel dollar and the exchange rate gap, which had hovered around 20%
In Delphos they warned: “Negative real rates for a longer period of time could boost financial dollars again in the coming days. In this context, carry trade bets support greater uncertainty.”
Along the same lines, the PPI underlined: “Cutting yields reduces the attractiveness of investment strategies.” bring transand, and, therefore, it could mean a pause in the weight appreciation process. However, we maintain our doubts. “In our opinion, the evolution of financial dollars depends more on Cepo engineering than anything else.”
For PPI analysts, “if dollar supply through the 80-20 pattern persists and CCL demand continues to be suppressed (as demonstrated by the BOPREAL Series 3), the effect on the dollar is likely to be relatively light” .
Source: Clarin
