Knowing the February inflation data (13.2%), which significantly decompressed official expectations, now, The Government’s concern is now focused on the March measurement.
This is a seasonally elevated month compared to the first two months due to the resumption of classes and other activities. That’s why officials are putting a magnifying glass on the variable, trying to continue the decline in a political context in which they must show good results. Economists estimate that the change will be similar or slightly higher than that of February.
From the point of view of the ACM consultancy firm, directed by the economist Javier Alvaredo, the data for the second month of the year were surprisingly positive compared to what the market expected. Since the BCRA Expectations Survey (REM), with the latest correction, forecast inflation of 14.3%.
“Despite this, in March The recorded deceleration is expected to lose inertia due to expected increases in regulated prices, especially in the education sector – one of the most backward price segments -, prepaid, tariffs and fuel” among others.
Precisely due to the imminent increase in some regulated prices, the consultancy firm LCG expects a level of inflation similar to that of February in March. However, its analysts do not rule it out a new devaluation (to resolve the delay of the official dollar since December) which will probably happen new pressure on prices.
Although, according to most analysts, we will also have to wait a lower pass-through of higher business costs on prices due to the recession and the anchoring that the structural changes that the Government will be able to implement in these months mean. At LCG, inflation is expected to rise 240% year-on-year starting in December, peaking at 380% towards the middle of the year.
With data still preliminary, consultancy Eco Go estimates that March inflation would be at level 13.5% monthly. “The decline compared to our initial projections responds to a record lower-than-expected seasonal and core product inflation,” explains the consultancy firm led by economist Marina Dal Poggetto.
For Lautaro Moschet, economist at the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, the drop in February “is a good symptom of the effects of the monetary policy adopted by the current government”. We are still going through very difficult months on the inflation front.. Largely due to regulated prices that were still far behind, he explains.
According to the expert, “despite knowing that March is a difficult month, because the seasonal factor usually generates pressure on the consumer price index, the downward trend is likely to continue. For now, according to the first price survey data, the first week of the month showed a smaller change than the first week of February.
Source: Clarin
