Argentine financial assets, which had started the week on the right foot on Monday, extended their positive streak and closed Tuesday with a new rise. While sovereign bonds recorded jumps of up to 3%, The Merval index recorded a slight increase which consolidates it above $1,042, a threshold that has not been reached since 2019.
The improvement in prices occurs in a global context in which investors remain attentive to signals coming from the US Federal Reserve on its rate policy and with the main Wall Street indices are moving higher.
After closing Monday with gains of up to 12%, Argentine stocks took a breather in New York, although some stocks, such as Banco Supervielle, closed in the green.
With less external momentum, the Merval index recorded a slight increase, by 0.5% in local currency and 0.2% when measured in dollars, which serves to consolidate the main indicator of the Buenos Aires stock exchange above of its previous ceiling of $1,040.
In the local market, Mirgor’s growth stands out, earning almost 14%; while Ternium Argentina and Aluar complete the podium, with increases of more than 8%. So far this month the Merval has gained 11.5% and has accumulated a 21.5% improvement in pesos since the end of the year.
In the City there is a correlation between the stock index and the cash index with settlement which stood at $1,089.87.
“The notable appreciation of the Argentine peso has left Argentina relatively expensive in US dollars, The S&P Merval index does not escape this logic. The correlation that exists between the peso index and the evolution of the dollar counted in liquidity is notable. Wherever the US$ CCL goes, there the S&P Merval will go too,” they said in the IEB group.
Meanwhile, in the fixed income segment, the strength of government bonds has spread. The AL30 in dollars was positioned by above 50 US dollars and it improves by almost 19% in this month alone. Hand in hand with this improvement in public securities, the country’s risk came close to exceeding the threshold of 1,500 basis points, and then closed at 1,535 units.
Investors are thrilled with what they see “a normalization” of the bond yield curve and an improvement in the credit rating, after the S&P agency raised the rating of Argentine bonds last Friday following the successful debt swap carried out by Caputo.
In this regard, Delphos noted: “In case of potential price increases leading to yields in line with other emerging countries with a similar rating, we may assume curves from countries that we consider peers, due to their similar movements. Some countries that today we consider comparable are: Egypt, Nigeria, Angola, Ecuador and Pakistanamong others.”.
“Leaving aside Ecuador, which has a curve similar to ours, the other countries have curves with a slightly positive slope. If we assume we go towards curves like those mentioned before, in all cases those with the greatest increase are the 2030 deadlines and the 2035, as the case may be,” they added.
Looking ahead, the market hopes that bonds can deepen this improvement, but tied to the political future. In this sense, the PPI underlined that recent increases in the public debt segment could be influenced more by “peculiar factors than by external ones”.
In this sense, SBS Group stated: “In terms of strategy, we continue to maintain that the risk-return ratio of Globals is the most attractive for Argentine assets. In this space we prefer GD35 (for convexity) and GD41 (for positions defensive), given the important rally of the GD30 in recent months”
Although they warned: “Both for Globales and for equityShort-term volatility could be important in the face of potential political noise and we believe value will be unlocked if the government can deliver.”delivery“strengthen its economic course.”
Source: Clarin
