In a complex political context, the Government urgently needs to demonstrate good economic performance. Here because, the slowdown in wholesale prices -which usually predict the behavior of retail inflation- revives good official expectations.
It just so happens that yesterday INDEC reported an increase internal retail price index (IPIM) of 10.2%, that is, it slowed down by 8 points compared to January. The moderation was general, with the exception of the Energy category, which had a monthly increase of 143%, and this alone explains 1.8 percentage points of wholesale inflation.
This process of decline in the IPIM has been ongoing in recent months: in January it grew by 18% and in December by 54%, again on an intermonthly basis, according to official data. If you compare it Compared to a year ago, the change is 329.9%.
At the same time, the consumer price index (CPI), a benchmark for inflation, also suffered a slowdown: from the peak increase in December which reached 25.5% due to the total liberalization of prices, it passed to 20.6% in January and “deflated” again to 13.2% in February. Meanwhile, it maintains a year-over-year increase of 276.2%.
Economists wonder whether the downward trend can be maintained in March, a seasonally high month due to the resumption of the school year but also the start of activities in general. Although this factor may generate upward pressure – on the other hand – Recession or decline in activity generates the opposite effect, becoming an important anchor in the course of the economic variable. Taking into account all these factors, consultancy firms estimate inflation in March It will be similar to February. According to Eco Go forecasts, for example, the figure will be around 13.5%.
As for the connection between the IPIM and the CPI, The consultancy firm LCG analyzes the following: “since December last year, year-on-year wholesale inflation has exceeded retail inflation, although this difference is narrowing,” it explains.
“Over the past three months, wholesale prices have increased by 100%, while retail prices have increased by 71%. This suggests that There is still some retail margin compression which will tend to be corrected sooner rather than later. The gap is smaller in the Food and Beverages category: 86% versus 74% respectively,” they clarify.
In general, analysts expect some moderation in wholesale inflation for the coming monthsalthough they warn that this result will be subject to the impact that tariff readjustments (gas and electricity) and a possible exchange rate correction could have.
Source: Clarin
