International prices do not accompany the increase in exports achieved with the devaluation of the peso and the reversal of the drought.
“The values exported in February grew exclusively by the quantities of effect (+13.5% on a non-annual basis), from prices fell by 6.8% per year in the same month. This dynamic is the same as in January, where the increase in quantities of 21.1% was partially moderated by a drop in prices (-9.4%), that is, we are witnessing a real recovery of external shipments, although generally driven by drought reversal”says the consultancy company Abeceb based on INDEC data.
In particular, the most affected item was the export of agricultural products, which increased, albeit only by 8% compared to February 2023, with a significant increase in quantities (27.7%) and a sharp drop in prices (-15.5% on an annual basis).
The INDEC Report indicates that “in terms of prices, a general decline in major export products related to soy: soya, including crushed, excluding that intended for sowing (-39%); crude soybean oil, including degummed (-31.4%); flour and pellets from the extraction of soybean oil (-12.8%) and refined soybean oil.
In turn, exports linked to the sector had a negative trend: industrial production fell by 3.9% on an annual basis, due to declines in both value, price and quantity: exported volumes decreased by 2.9% in quantity and prices decreased by 0.5%.
The category of fuels and energy, Meanwhile, February saw a decline of 3.2% year-on-year, although explained by a drop in prices (-2.6%) with stable quantities.
This decline in export prices was greater than the decline in import prices, which generated a loss in terms of trade.
Therefore, INDEC states that “In the two months of 2024 the trade balance was in surplus of 2,222 million dollars. However, if the prices of the same period of the previous year had prevailed, the trade balance would have recorded a surplus of 2,762 million dollars.”
And he continues: “In this hypothesis, and given the greater decrease in the export price index (-8%), compared to the import price index (-4.5%), the country recorded a terms of trade loss of $435 million”.
Source: Clarin
