This year, according to economists, economic activity is expected to follow a “V”-shaped trajectory: hitting bottom in the second half of the year and then starting to recover. Always with forecasts of a decline in GDP ranging from 2.8% to 5% and more. In this context, the behavior of the different economic sectors will not be homogeneous. The agricultural sector, after the drought, for example, is considered the main driving factor. On the other hand, other sectors – especially those producing non-essential goods – appear to be the most affected by the situation.
“Despite cuts in expected yields for coarse cropping, a recovery is expected agricultural sector, with an estimated growth of 19.2% by 2024″, according to the consultancy firm Abeceb. This will stimulate the sale of agricultural machinery (with expected increases of 14.6%), agrochemicals (3.2%) and fertilizers (8%).
This sector, together with mining, where the estimated increase is 11.1%, and the sector diesel, especially Vaca Muerta (oil 7.4% and gas 4.3%) and knowledge economyfor which exports of 10,000 million dollars are expected, will boost the level of economic activity during the rest of the year.
“These are the sectors that can contribute to the jump in productivity and the supply of foreign currency, even if they have a limited capacity to generate employment to the extent that the country needs, explain the analysts of the consultancy firm. “But at the same time they are fundamental to the dynamics of regional economies”, they clarify.
On the other hand, other sectors of the economy, including those most affected by inflation, such as consumption -for example- they will not live the next few months with too much encouragement. Abeceb estimates that the loss in consumption will be 8% basically due to the decline in income and the increase in family costs such as tuition, schools, transportation and healthcare, among others.
This in turn has repercussions on the items related to mass consumption such as food and drink, which according to the consultancy firm would fall by 0.5%. And also in the retail trade, with household appliances suffering a decline of 10.5%.
Specifically, the drops have already begun to be quantified: the latest INDEC report, from January, reported a drop in supermarkets of 13.8%, in self-service wholesale stores of 81.% and in shopping centers of 21%. ,3%. The reason is elementary: given the fall in the purchasing power of wages Consumers readjust their consumption, stopping buying certain products that are not essential.
Taking into consideration all production branches, this is demonstrated by the indicator from the consultancy firm Orlando Ferreres&Asociados an average decline of 5.6% in the level of activity accumulated in January and February. The most advantaged sectors were agriculture and mining. And the most lagging behind are Construction (-14%), financial intermediation (-8.7%) and the manufacturing industry (-7.5%).
The sectors with the greatest difficulties
Sales of Automobiles, are expected to decrease on the domestic market, due to the price increases that vehicles have experienced since the December devaluation and which have motivated the reappearance of financing for the purchase of zero kilometer units by manufacturers. However, this sector significantly mitigates the decline due to its international inclusion.
Another sector that will have a negative impact on the recovery of the economy is Constructionwith an expected decline of 11%, according to Abeceb, “since it will not see the light public Works until the new private participation system is defined. Added to this are other factors such as the lack of financing at competitive rates,” she noted.
According to the consultancy firm led by economist Dante Sica, the sector could record a decline of 5.2% due to expectations of exchange rate appreciation. “It does not have the incentives to take risks that would allow it to compete on the global market, companies wait and see, leaving expansion investments on hold,” he warns.
The knowledge economy is in line with positive expectations thanks to the competitive exchange rate and estimates of increased exports. On the other hand, service items such as logistics, fuel shipping, gastronomy and security, among other things, due to the reduction in demand resulting from the decline in activity in the domestic market, they suffer a downward impact.
Source: Clarin
