He changing political cycle and global good mood helped Argentine financial assets which, hand in hand with global stock markets, A “golden neighborhood” is closing this Wednesdaywith useful for different types of instruments.
The price increase occurred in almost all assets and, on the one hand, in the index Merval closes with a rise of 16% in dollars and returns to pre-PASO 2019 levels when trading exceeds US$1,100; Meanwhile him country risk is already compressed by more than 500 points since the start of the year.
Global party and local recovery
In the first three months of 2024, global markets, albeit with some volatility, They continued in “celebration mode.” Diego Martínez Burzaco, from Inviu, explained: “The dynamic that occurred was basically what we saw in the second half of last year, where companies, The Magnificent SevenLet’s say that, loaded at other companies in the semiconductor industry, strongly motivated by all things artificial intelligence, “They were the ones who strongly promoted it.”
“Valuations are quite expensive in broad terms for the entire market. Maybe it’s time to be very selective with equity. This was also partly motivated by the fact that the North American economy continued to grow at a good pace, despite the fact that some regions in other parts of the developed world slowed down,” the economist said.
Martínez Burzaco underlined that Persistence of high rates in the United States “helped” to the recovery of local assets. “Our House View is this Starting from the second half of the year, rates drop, but slightly. If we place Argentina in this context, of course This good global performance has contributed to creating greater risk appetite among global investors,” he said, but added: “logically, the big recovery that bonds have seen is due to the change in political expectations and the new policy of zero fiscal deficit and surplus.”
Cut and bounce in the Merval
Argentine stocks had risen last year as a way to hedge inflation and devaluation. After a strong rally, they deflated, but in tandem with the decline in country risk, the main indicator of the Buenos Aires stock market once again surpassed the historical limit.
Tobías Sánchez, analyst at research of Cocos Capital said: “The first quarter of the year was a busy period for equity Argentine. We believed in the need for a Merval correction because it was at very challenging valuations, which was a natural consequence after the strong rally seen in 2023. This correction became effective in February and early March, with a significant drop of 28% in pesosreflecting a natural adjustment in valuations.”
However, the Buenos Aires stock market has been recovering since mid-March and accumulating a 20% increase in pesos this month alone. “The banking sector emerged as one of the prime beneficiaries of this earnings season, showing solid profitability driven primarily by its investments in government securities. Importantly, this sector was lagging behind others, which had already reached post-2019 stages. 2019,” said Sánchez, who The recovery of energy companies stands out.
The global ones, the winners
Dollar bonds have risen nearly 50% in just three months. “Bonds Rise as State Fiscal Bills Improve, thus increasing the probability of payment, and today they reach parity close to the date of issue. These assets are currently emerging as one of the best investment options, as they are the ones that best represent the risk-return ratio of the Argentine market,” explained Sánchez.
In this sense, Maximiliano Donzelli, of the IOL, underlined: “We understand that the increase responds to clear support for the adjustment measures of the new government which seek to try to bring order to the macroeconomic imbalances that still affect the Argentine economy”, while at the same time he added: “A sequence of good data at the macroeconomic level has generated positive upward momentum in dollar sovereign debt: reserve accumulation; financial surplus added in the first two months of 2024.”
Bitcoin, the surprise of the markets
Hand in hand with a greater appetite for risk, Bitcoin began a new rally and before the next halving, the most famous cryptocurrency managed to surpass its own historical record. After break the $70,000 ceilinga little deflated, but still aims to close the first quarter with a profit of 64.5%.
In this regard, José Bano stated: “Always around the halving, bitcoin has a very important rally. Then about a year before it starts to rise, and then it rises for another year. And for me it still has a year of growth.” .
SN
Source: Clarin
