April inflation slowed slightly: it registered a 5.5% floor

Although inflation for April is expected to be lower than the March level (6.7%), the rate will remain high: Economists estimate that the pace at which retail prices have risen in the past month has been between 5.8% and 6.3%. In this context, food has again grown above the overall average of inflation, as have health, leisure and education matters.

A few days ago, the Minister of Productive Development, Matías Kulfas, announced that “April inflation is not good”. And he admitted that the price of needles will only start to slow towards May.

According to the Consumer Price Index prepared by consulting firm Orlando Ferreres & Asociados, the data for April is 6.3% and registered a year-on-year growth of 52.5%. On the other hand, core inflation advanced at a monthly rate of 6.7%, marking an annual increase of 54.5%.

Ricardo Delgado, economist and president of consultancy Analytica said its estimate is 5.8% for April inflation. “We saw some slowdown in the first few weeks but in the second two weeks, food prices rose again.” This item climbed to 6.4%. Among other factors, the frightening rise in prices is due, in his view, to the invalidation of price controls, to a misinterpretation regarding inflation that is not considered a macroeconomic fact and to more great uncertainty it caused. noise, “he explained.

For its part, the Eco Go estimate, is indicated increased by 5.8%, with an accrued annual rate of 57.8%. “April was a strong month affected by the drag left by inflation in March but which also combined its own factors “, the consultant explained. These include the uncertainty about the evolution of key economic variables in the coming months and the uncertainty about the compliance of the International Monetary Fund in the next quarter. According to its analysts, these factors exacerbated the increase in certain prices, such as poultry, egg and flour derivatives, as a result of rising international prices.

Also, “the rise of categories such as Leisure due to timely issues or the rise of housing, health and education as a result of rising regulated prices have an impact on these categories,” according to Eco Go. And finally, it points out that “the distortion of relative prices combined with the need for wages to regain purchasing power and of various sectors to recover their margins, resulting in higher and more volatile prices ”.

Guido Lorenzo, an economist at LCG, meanwhile, expects inflation of 5.5% and for the year, a floor of 70%, as he said Clarion. Also on this measure, food is rising above the overall level, at a rate of 6%, the analyst said.

From Fundación Libertad, which is estimated to rise to 6.1% in April, point out that, in the first four months of the year “We achieved a price increase equivalent to 70% of what was planned in the 2022 Budget Project for the whole year (33%). and almost half of the upper band of the IMF projection (48%) ”.

“There are fewer and fewer expectations that inflation will close this year below 60-70%. This can be seen in parity rates, which are having higher increases and shorter terms. And also in the issues in government debt in the local market, where more and more indexing mechanisms are needed and higher yields, ”said Eugenio Marí, an economist at that foundation.

“On top of that, the delayed increases still need to be whitewashed. Utility rates, prepaid, telephony. And they will have an impact on the measurement of IPC, so we will definitely face another month of strong increases ”, the analyst added.