In line with the calculations of other consultancy firms in the city, Equilibra expects that in March the INDEC Consumer Price Index presented a increase of 13%, lower than the record achieved in February, but higher than the government’s most optimistic calculations, which estimated inflation had fallen to a single-digit level.
In the consultancy firm founded by economist Martín Rapetti they believe that inflation can fluctuate between 11% and 15%. In the third month of the year, prices of seasonal products led the growth with an average increase of 20%, after strong increases in vegetables and clothing.
On the other hand, regulated prices, which had increased by 23% the previous month, increased in line with the general level this time, due to the postponement of planned increases for gas. According to Equilibra calculations “Core inflation would remain at a similar level to that of February (12%), with the Education sector in the lead (average increases above 50%)”.
Equilibra acknowledged that these new projections are lower than those indicated by the median of the latest market expectations survey prepared by the BCRA and carried out at the end of February. The change is due to the slowdown in prices in recent weeks.
The food They represent 25% of the consumer price index, Therefore, the slowdown in prices in recent weeks explains the reduction in the entire index. Also, as published Clarionthe recession in almost all areas has repercussions on price levels, making increases more limited compared to previous months.
Regarding the food sector specifically, the survey by the consultancy firm LCG highlighted an average increase of 10.2% in the last 4 weeks and 8.6% end-to-end in the same period. Meanwhile, according to Eco Go, the inflation of food products consumed at home would amount to 11.4% in March, taking into account the measurement up to the third week of the month and considering an expected increase of 3% for the last week . The increases recorded in food consumed outside the home would reach 11.2%.
For the Libertad & Progreso Foundation, the increase in inflation in March was 10.6%. slowing down by 2.6 percentage points compared to the official measurement in February (13.2%). In this way, in the first quarter of the year the CPI would accumulate an increase of 51.1% and the interannual variation of 286.4%.
Source: Clarin
