March inflation it would be around 12% according to consultants’ projections, in a month marked by a slowdown in food prices, which rose below the general index. Inflation thus stands at an increase of 52% for the first quarter and in the projections of consultancy firms it promises to close the year below the 211% recorded in 2023.
For the EcoGo consultancy company, March inflation was 12.5%which implies a 53.5% jump in the first quarter and a year-on-year increase of 305.5%. In this measurement, food and drink increased by 10.7%.
“The dynamics of food increases is increasingly closer to that recorded in October before the ballot and is starting to normalize after the leap in December’s devaluation. In March, increases by an average of 2.4% weekly, recording a slowdown from week to week,” the report states.
Behind the brake on the increase in food is the collapse of mass consumption, which in supermarkets recorded an 8.3% drop in February, according to data from the consultancy firm Scentia.
According to the CPI-OJF survey, carried out by Studio Ferreres y Asociados, inflation in March was 12.2% monthly and recorded year-on-year growth of 288.3%. On the other hand, underlying inflation, adjusted for the effect of seasonal and regulated prices, increased at a monthly rate of 9.2%, marking an annual increase of 299.2%. AS, General inflation accumulated in the first three months of the year amounted to 51.6%, and core inflation of 47.0%.
Within the CPI-OJF, the education and housing categories led the month’s increases, with monthly increases of 37.5% and 20.6% respectively, followed by Clothing and Health, which showed a change of 16, 8% and 15.1%.
The price index of the Freedom and Progress Foundation scored 10.6% last month, while S&T’s retail price survey for the GBA region presented a monthly increase of 12.7%. The twelve-month change was 295.3%.
For C&T, core inflation was lower than headline inflation, at a record 10.9%, due to the strong presence of seasonal and regulated increases.
How high will annual inflation reach?
The registration of the consumer price index Indec will be announced on April 12th. With March inflation around 12% It will be the third consecutive month of absence, which leads consultancy firms to tone down their increase forecasts for the entire year, which now, with a few exceptions, tend to be lower than last year’s record, which was 211%.
For EcoGo the annual inflation will be 185% and for S&T’s 170%, the same as Freedom and Progress. “There could be other scenarios, warns Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T, “It all depends on what happens with the exchange rate.” Instead Fausto Spotorno, of Estudio Ferreres, sees it around 210 or 215%.
For Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, of Equilibra, March inflation was 13% and that of the year will depend on how the foreign exchange market is unified and whether the government maintains the 2% monthly correction on the official dollar. “If this pace continues, the dollar will fall further behind and that could widen the gap. And if the gap is significant, there will be another jump in the exchange rate which can accelerate inflation a bit.With this scenario, Equilibra’s estimate is the same Inflation will reach 300% in 2024. In an optimistic scenario, with a very limited exchange rate correction, the year could end with inflation at 210%, according to Equilibra projections.
Source: Clarin
