Milei’s euphoria, the proposals of the International Monetary Fund and the diplomatic mess with Colombia

The “wolves” of Wall Street celebrate with Argentina. Bonds rise and stocks accompany them to Manhattan. Investment banks publish reports “in love” with the fiscal surplus and talk about a change in the economy. The euphoria is being exploited to the fullest and financial bicycles are multiplying. The “wolves” worship only one matter: “The God of Money”.

This euphoric climate is experienced in the intimacy of Olivos. Javier Milei loves Karina and Santiago Caputo. The President has fun with polls: They give him good things and this renews his spirit. He exclaims to Olivos: “People understand us and support us. I will continue like this.” They are also euphoric with Indec.

Inflation in March It will be above 10 and below 13. But they say the 10% threshold will soon be reached. Furthermore, they predict that the IMF will eventually provide support to get out of the trap. Luis Caputo travels to Washington with the intention of mollifying the bureaucrats.

But the euphoria of Wall Street – and of Olivos too – contrasts with a problem: Argentina’s deep stagflation. Rodrigo Valdés – director of the Western Hemisphere – has already communicated what the Economy must do to obtain the approval of the IMF. The reserved “card”, They focus on four specific measures:

–-Exit the current “Toto” board. They want an 8% monthly devaluation.

–Transform the precarious fiscal surplus into something coherent. They demand an immediate increase in income tax for the middle class.

–They ask that the program have political support and social sustainability.

–They ask to change monetary policy. They condemn the negative interest rate and the excessive restriction of money. They say that Santiago Bausili overreacts and could cause a hyperrecession.

To date, Milei has created the Chainsaw Plane and the Blender Plane. Now apply the Monetary Dryer plan. The BCRA is draining money from the economy. The monetary base – pesos held by the public – fell 37% in real terms.

The restriction has positive effects: it lowers inflation and lowers the dollar. SMEs sell dollars to finance themselves. But this can cause a delicate social situation: a hyperrecession. At the IMF they don’t want Milei to “go too far”. Valdés also insists that the maximum contribution the IMF could grant would be around $5 billion. The money pending from Mauricio Macri’s mega loan.

Yesterday the Juntos governors rejected the income tax. They fear its recessive impact. Guillermo Francos promised to change its wording. The bill will go to Congress on April 16.

The relationship with leaders is tense. There are already ten provinces that have presented themselves to the Supreme Court against the national state. Yesterday the meeting between “Totò” Caputo and Jorge Macri was also reflected. They are two old friends. Macri was direct: “We want them to pay the Municipality for the Court’s ruling.” Caputo replied: “We don’t have any money.” Macri replied: “The waiting time is running out.” In Olivos they are still happy.

This euphoric financial diagnosis contrasts with a very harsh productive reality. There is a sudden recession, a flat wage decline and an exuberant cut to pensioners. Furthermore, high rates will arrive in April and May.

The contraction in consumption undermines one of the pillars of the Milei Plan: tax collection has collapsed. This is key information. This can lead to a vicious cycle: insisting on a permanent adjustment to compensate for the constant decline in revenue.

It would be a horrible process. To deal with it, Milei has a clear strength: the weakness of the opposition. The disaster of Kirchnerism and the tepidity of radicalism mean that no one cares about the Casa Rosada.

The PRO seems absorbed by libertarians. Many of its leaders are seeing how to settle in at the Casa Rosada.

Cristina has been cancelled. Enjoy – like never before – the corruption scandal against Alberto. She repeats it like this: “This idiot was the one who gave us ethics lessons.” It is known that Julián Ercolini the investigation deepened and that he had already decided to name the former president himself as an accused. I would look for the right moment.

Cristina concentrated on her causes. Months ago you changed your defense strategy: less frenzy of pursuits and more professional realism.

Mauricio Macri experiences his own contradictions. That’s why the silence. He knows that his political fortune is linked to that of Milei. Macri supports what Milei is doing now. It was what he wanted to do as president and he didn’t dare to do it. But at the same time he is grumpy about Milei’s refusal to turn to his trusted men for key assignments. Mauricio, in private, tells the team about him: “Let’s wait until June.”

Both – Cristina and Macri – are attentive to the turbulent process in the Supreme Court. Ariel Lijo would have the votes to join the highest court. His “godfather”, Ricardo Lorenzetti, supports his efforts.

Milei consulted Lorenzetti. He was before making the decision. And he decided to ignore Rosatti. He accuses him of having campaigned for Sergio Massa. But there is strong resistance. In the Casa Rosada they accuse the lawyers Máximo Fonrouge and Guillermo Lipera of having manipulated the offensive against Lijo.

Unusual events also happen in the Chancellery. They tried to cover it up, but it was about talking about “the house”. In the midst of the crisis with Colombia, the Argentine ambassador never answered the phone. He would have left – without warning – the Embassy to spend a few days of rest. This is the diplomat Gustavo Dzugala, who was in Bariloche, when they needed him in Bogota.

Diana Mondino decided to transfer him. In the end, Dzugala had to cut short his weekend at Nahuel Huapi. Now the new ambassador would be Mario Verón Guerra.

An unusual event in the manufacturing movement will happen on Monday: the legendary Daniel Funes of Rioja will relinquish – after 16 years – the presidency of COPAL.

The handover was turbulent. Funes intended to continue a further period. But there was a fateful meeting, where they told him that the political decision was different. This bitter pill was communicated, among others, by Adrian Kauffman Brea and Esteban Agos Carreño. Funes tried to defend his position. But he had no margin. They told him: “Cycle concluded”. They also said they wanted a renewal and, above all, not to mix the UIA’s battles with those of COPAL. Food companies want their own profile. The executive director, until now, takes over the reins on Monday: Carla Martín Bonito, the first woman to lead the powerful entity.

He has exactly the opposite profile of Funes. Technical and excessively low profile. He enters the “major league” in a difficult situation: sharp decline in sales, threat of importation and criticism from “Toto” Caputo for the rebranding.

Funes ruminated and remained angry. He knows that industrialists like Carlos Bernárdez (of Las Marías) supported him.

It will now be dedicated exclusively to the UIA. In his last meeting as head of COPAL’s board of directors, he decided to show his teeth.

He opened the session and said: “I accept the decision of the board of directors.” And before leaving the meeting, dazed, he vented his discomfort: “I want to express my discontent with the form, the ways and the mistreatment they had with me.”.