He Blue dollar moves away slightly this Friday and, along with the Dollar MEPoperate below the $1,000 barrier. With the last two months of the foreign exchange market virtually resolved, the questions that arise are How long will the calm last and what to invest in with a quiet dollar.
The MEP or stock exchange dollar, which can be purchased legally, has been below 1,000 dollars for three days, bringing the exchange rate gap with the official one to values not seen since 2019. This Friday, financial dollars are trading at 997 dollars, 53 for the MEP and at 1,042.42 dollars for cash with liquid, the financial operation used to transfer dollars abroad.
The reasons for the revaluation of the peso against the dollar are many. On one side, The so-called “dollar blend” is maintained. exporter that allows producers to liquidate 20% of their exports in the financial market, which still keeps cash liquid. And now the soy dollars should arrive.
“The combination of the good reception that the fiscal adjustment plan that the government is facing has on the market, added to the foreign exchange surplus resulting from the increased supply of agriculture and the energy sector, and the lower demand for foreign currency due to the recession gives Esso “more air for financial dollars which continue to close the gap with the official dollar”holds Martino Polo, Chief strategist From Cohen.
This also helps to calm expectations of a political settlement through the Foundations Law and the government’s repeated promises not to devalue in an attempt to establish the dollar as an anti-inflationary anchor.
What should be done with the savings?
In this context, where to invest? Before answering this question, we need to see whether the saver starts with pesos or dollars and whether he is conservative or more willing to risk his capital.
If you start with pesos, Polo recommends inflation-linked bonds OR fixed terms modifiable by UVA. “Rates lose to inflation, and due to the relative price adjustment, we expect the CPI to remain in the double digits at least until May,” he says.
“The fall in interest rates does peso alternatives are less attractive and (to win) you have to take more risks, for example by setting a stock portfoliowhich could be the ones linked to “privatized public services”thinks Diego Martinez Burzaco, National director From Send Argentina.
“I do not recommend selling dollars to invest in pesos because sales would be very low and peso rates are not high enough to compensate for a possible rebound in dollars. We discourage it,” he says.
“For the local investor who wants hedge against possible devaluationone option is to buy dollars and invest them Bopreal and/or sovereign bonds“Adds Polo.
“For a moderate investor and with a horizon of middle termTHE sovereign debt in dollars remains an attractive option,” he says. Pedro Siaba Serrateby the Head of Research and Strategy of PPI. These stocks closed May with increases of 17% and this Friday recorded increases of around 3%.
Siaba Serrate proposes the Bopreal Series 1-A and Bopreal Series 3 (the most attractive currently) short term and bonds GD35 and GD46 for long-term exposures. Polo also adds the GD30 and GD38.
At IOL investingonline they aim to Bopreal Series 1-B. The Bopreal or Bonus for the Reconstruction of a Free Argentina is a dollar sovereign bond issued by the Argentine government to help settle debts with importers.
“In the medium term, the implementation of the fiscal plan, which was very successful in the first two months of the year, should catch up more sustainable nature over time, which requires the passage of some law through Congress and perceive that structural changes can be permanent”, explains Siaba Serrate, answering whether ties can continue to have an upward path.
If this were the case, Argentina’s performance in the medium to long term could converge levels similar to those of countries with a debt rating one step above ours (B-), like Egypt and Turkey”, he enthuses. And adds: “At the same time, the possible unification of the foreign exchange market (end of the actions) would facilitate the accumulation of reserves and, therefore, the probability of payment in the short term“.
Dollar investment options
“There are some interesting options, depending on the risk you want to take. For example, you can buy a mutual investment fund (FCI) in which it invests Latin American bonds, who can have an (uninsured) income of 4.5 and 6% per year,” says Martínez Burzaco.
Inviu’s number one also suggests negotiable bonds of companies or mutual funds that invest in these bonds, which can give 7, 8 and 9% per annum.
According to Massimiliano Donzelli, Research manager from IOL, “in the short to medium term the real exchange rate measured by the financial exchange rate (MEP) may not have much room for strong appreciation. Therefore, it may be aim to re-dollarize portfolios and convert part of the profits in pesos of recent months into dollars”.
In addition to agreeing to bet on sovereign bonds in dollars and bopreales, adds the analyst cedars (instruments that replicate the movement of securities of companies listed abroad). And among his favorites there are MercadoLibre, Amazon and the Russell 2000 ETFa fund that seeks to replicate the investment results of an index composed of small-cap U.S. stocks.
Source: Clarin
