The market remains optimistic about the performance of the economy and the the exchange summer that began in February continues until April. This Monday the financial dollar fell again, the exchange rate gap reached a new low and the Central Bank managed to get another $280 million for its reserves. On the stock market, bonds remained in green and country risk It fell to 1,236 units, the lowest since September 2020.
As investors and analysts in the city analyze the government’s timing to begin dismantling exchange restrictions and amid some expectations for a new decline in interest rates, the wind remains favorable for Argentine assets. In the foreign exchange market, blue it remained at $985 the same as Friday’s close, while financial dollars moved lower again.
Both the CCL and MEP fell again by about 1.5% to $1,034.15 and $985, respectively. There is double pressure on the foreign exchange market: while the dollar melts for the export sector pushes down cash with liquids, the sales of SMEs and families who They begin to “de-dollarize” and sell the dollars purchased on the financial market.
The 80/20 system imposed by the Government for exports and which allows 20% of dollars to be liquidated in cash with liquids, increases the supply on that market, while at the same time giving the Central Bank a chance continue your dollar purchase at full speed. All in a context in which cross-restrictions remain to operate in the “free” segments and with imports practically frozen.
This Monday, Central retained another $280 million and racked up $1,312 in four-wheeler purchases. “With the accumulated purchases of the first four working days of April, the BCRA is about to exceed 50% of total purchases last month”underlined the operator Gustavo Quintana, of PR Corredores de Cambios.
According to market expectations, the purchasing result of the organization chaired by Santiago Bausuli will remain strong this month too. “As the peak agricultural liquidation season approaches, the pace of BCRA purchases is expected to slow. speed up, as importers have incentives Do to carry instead of buying the official dollar, given the expectation that the creeping picket remains at 2%,” they noted in the PPI.
The market is analyzing when Central will be able to get out of the red into which it has been placing its net reserves since before Javier Milei’s arrival in Congress. These, not counting the debt associated with Bopreal, negative total of 3.1 billion dollars, Therefore, if the pace of purchases is maintained in the next rounds, the Government could reach the end of the month with a positive balance, but will have to face the deadlines set with the Fund.
At the same time, there is some expectation about what the basis of the financial dollar will be. “With a dollar avalanche likely to worsen in the short term, due to the seasonality of crop liquidations, financial dollars continue to be under downward pressure as excess supply flow continues to be under control at this stage. Even so “With the gap continuing to deflate, expectations are growing for a possible exit from inventories into the second half of the year, once reserves have been strengthened and also advanced further in the BCRA health strategy,” the economist said Gustavo Ber.
The PPI states: “The increased liquidation of exporters arising from the gross will also aggravate the decline of the CCL, which is already “is at the lowest real level since late August 2019.”
“In extreme cases, in a context of very limited demand and a sharp increase in supply, the financial dollar could be below the official one. We believe that this does not make sense in the current Argentine economic context. Therefore, to avoid that peso appreciation could extend, we believe some demand restrictions could be lifted in the near term,” they warned.
Source: Clarin
