From this Monday a strong one is expected reorganization in the portfolios of investors and small savers, as the impact of the rate cut that the Central Bank faced last Thursday will be seen. Fixed-term loans have reduced their returns by an average of 70% per year to 60% per yearjust 5% monthly, as shown on Friday.
At the same time, the increase in reserve requirements imposed for money market funds has been in force since Monday will go from 0% to 10%, so the impact on this type of tools will be greater. These funds, also called T+0, allow this access your invested money at any time and has gained a lot of popularity in a market that has sought to protect itself from the resurgence of inflation and persistent uncertainty over exchange rates.
But now, with inflation starting to show signs of slowing and the dollar having flattened for weeks, the government is trying to “recalibrate” the timing of investments and forces both small savers and investors to look for other types of tools to avoid losing as all prices in the economy rise.
Sebastián Suh, Portfolio Manager at Adcap Grupo Financiero, noted: “The funds Money market They have returned about 70% annually and as they phase out old instruments, money market funds should return 50% to 55% more or less. “This is a decline of between 1,500 and 2,000 basis points, which is much larger than the decline in the policy rate which was 1,000 basis points.”
Per Suh: “The government wants to liquefy remunerated liabilities, which are remunerated deposits made by the funds money market. So, with this premise, the government is to punish lower rates for this type of instrument. Likewise, it is seen that the government wants some kind of rotation of popular investments. “He wants instead of taking risk from the Central Bank through the money market, they take more risk from the Treasury and that helps finance it.”
Although a priori the lowering of rates could affect the exchange rate gap, last Friday No major movements were observed in the price of the parallel dollar. At the consultancy firm LCG they explained why they believe the impact on the foreign exchange market would be limited: “This is to be expected some pressure on the parallel quotes as a destination for surplus pesos, but at times when crop liquidation is present (even if not in its entirety), the 20% supply in the CCL market may moderate demand,” they said.
So, those who decide to stay in the weight universe They should look for longer terms to make their investment worthwhile. “With this new level of rates, it is expected that there will be a greater return spread between money market funds and T+1 funds. This is due to the possibility of working with lower levels of liquidity and incorporating assets that can earn something more than term deposits or interest-bearing accounts,” they said in fund manager MegaQM.
With this type of bet, it would be possible to “lose less” in the face of inflation. Now, if you are looking for positive real rates, you need to migrate to other types of instruments, for example CER bonds. “FCIs in the CER category are extending the duration (term) of his portfolio, positioning himself in the middle and long section of the curve to try to capture real returns that are less negative or at least have implied positive returns for the last four months of the year,” they added on MegaQM.
The market of stocks can also serve as a refuge. After a rally that has seen the Merval index rise more than 24% in dollar terms this year, there are still sectors with upside potential. In the SBS Group, emphasis was placed on energy, underlining the role of YPF, Pampa Energía and Transportadora de Gas del Sur.
Source: Clarin
