YPF Gas
The fuel shortage is becoming more and more noticeable. Also, it adds another factor of deterioration to the productive dynamics. As is happening with the acceleration of inflation, the war between Russia and Ukraine has added difficulties, but the numbers themselves show more internal inconsistency.
What’s happening? Domestically diesel and liquefied gas are in short supply. This affects the mobility of private vehicles, transportation of passengers and cargo, and the production (especially agriculture). Ang delays in fuel imports This is the main complaint of the sector and warns that the supply of fuel to service stations will continue to be applied by quotas.
The look and the doubts are immersed in standardization of this situation and it revolves around the impact on fuel prices derived from sanctions against Russia.
The price of oil fluctuates and remains around US $ 100 per barrel (in 2021 it is at US $ 68). The price of imported LNG (liquefied natural gas) is approximately US $ 40, in 2021 it will be US $ 8. In this context, and because part of fuel imports is funded by subsidies, current financial restrictions add pressures and a lot of uncertainty.
Should our country be at risk of deficits due to current international conditions? If we consider some data from the Ministry of Economy, we can see that in 1991 the export balance fewer fuel imports grew to reach US $ 7.4 billion in 2006 at current prices.
For its part, in 2006, the balance began decline as of 2013 was in deficit of – US $ 9,800 million at current prices. Since then, exports have begun to be more than imports, but by 2021 the balance will be negative again at – US $ 1.4 billion.
The basis of these numbers is Argentina has the conditions to be a net exporter of fuels. With minimally rational rules, it is possible to produce fuels that are more than what is consumed. Why? The output is:
1. Between 1991 and 2001 there were long -term contracts with extractive companies that generated surplus;
2. In 2002 these contracts were broken and, despite this, the surplus continued to grow until 2006. From this moment, it began to decline until it reached 2013 with a severe fuel shortage;
3. Between 2015 and 2019 they tried to recreate the conditions for investments and withdraw the surplus, but they were reversed (back to energy shortage).
Although the world is now facing a major energy crisis due to the war, we must remember that even if sanctions against Russia are lifted, the crisis will continue because Russia is no longer a reliable supplier of energy to Europe. In fact, the European Union (EU) is already seeking to strengthen the liquefied gas regasification infrastructure it has in its network of ports stretching from the Mediterranean to the North Sea.
In a few words, despite the war itself, the EU has decided to moderate its dependence on energy on Russia and thus become a major buyer of liquefied gas worldwide (which will increase its price). The restructuring, in international terms, should be a good opportunity for our country, for gas producing potential. Unfortunately, and because of both bad analysis and wrong energy policies applied over the past decades, we are now faced with a situation of high reliance on liquefied gas.
The reactions to the energy crisis are similar and bring us closer to those generated by accelerating inflation. Why? Usually, instead of honestly assessing that the current turmoil in the public sector creates conditions for high inflation, it appeals to simple propositions. how From trying to prevent price increases through controls to proposing complete dollarization of the economy as a comprehensive ordering decision. Short -term steps abound. The deficit is in the absence of a strategic outlook.
The author is a professor at CEMA University
Source: Clarin
