Central Bank director Miguel Angel Pesce.
Market analysts expect -by the end of April- that Retail inflation for this year will be 65.1% year-on-year, i.e., 5.9 points higher than the previous survey. Meanwhile, those who best predict this variable for the short term (TOP-10) expect average inflation of 65.7% per year (4.8 points more).
Survey of Market Expectations (REM) participants revised inflation forecasts for 2023 and placed it at 50.5% yoy (3.1 points higher than March’s REM) and for 2024 at 43.7% year-on-year. (2.8 points higher than the previous survey). Regarding core inflation, one that does not take into account seasonal variations, the forecast is to reach 64.2% year-on-year by the end of 2022 (4.2 points higher than the March survey).
About monthly inflation, for March of this year the median of the estimates suggested a rate of 5.5% monthly, while the data observed in that month was 6.7%. For April 2022, the median of the current survey estimates is 5.6% per month, as well as the average of the TOP-10 of the best tipsters.
Economists who participate in REM also make their forecasts on gross domestic product (GDP) growth. In this case, analysts predict a 3.5% increase for this year (0.3 points higher than the previous REM). As for the seasonally adjusted quarterly variation of GDP, an increase of 1.2% is estimated for the first quarter of 2022: 0.6 points higher compared to the previous survey. The variation estimate corresponding to the second quarter of 2022 decreased by 0.4 pp to a contraction of 0.8% se. Meanwhile, for the third quarter of the year, a contraction of 0.5% is forecast se
For May 2022, the participants in the REM forecast a private bank Badlar rate of 45%, 173 basis points higher than the average rate registered in April (43.27%). There is evidence of an upward correction in monthly projections. The best predicted interest rate for the short -term forecast, on average, that it will be 44.92% by the end of 2022.
As for the exchange rate, analysts have slightly corrected their monthly projections. They expect to hit the price of the dollar $ 155 by December 2022 and $ 226 by the end of 2023. Those who more accurately predict this variable with a short-term horizon project that the average nominal exchange rate by the end of December 2022 will reach $ 152.57.
For exports (FOB) estimated value of US $ 84,564 million at the end of the year, increased by US $ 1,953 million in relation to the last REM. Meanwhile, the value of import (CIF) is located at US $ 72,038 million, this is US $ 1,175 million than the previous forecast.
Another variable examined by REM experts is Unemployment. At this point, the median of the forecasts dropped to 7.5% of the economically active population, in the first quarter of the year. For the second quarter, up 7.9%, and for the third, up 7.8%. However, an increase of 7.7% is estimated for the fourth quarter of 2022.
Source: Clarin
