With the YPF rising, gasoline will contribute nearly half a point to May inflation

The YPF rose on Monday its fuel prices rose 11.5% and thus added to the weekend increases driven by Axion and Shell. In this adjustment, the third of the year, the fuel accumulate an average adjustment of 30% order at upward pressure on inflation in Maya month that was generally calm, but now driven by increases in regulated prices.

This is the first time the semi-state oil company is referring to an update after its competitors. Later, he was the first to move the chips. But over the weekend, Axion and Shell continued with increases of between 10.5% and 12% on average, and in order not to disappear into the stage, YPF joined after 24 hours. That gap, according to the company, has increased demand on its network, with significant “product breaks” throughout its system.

During this administration, there were approximately 18 fuel increases. The latest, after January and February, occurs in a context of ever -increasing international energy prices. In that framework, Economists believe gasoline will contribute nearly half a point to May inflation. The Central Bank’s survey of expectations predicts a 4.4% increase this month, just below the 5.6% estimated for April, after 6.7% in March.

“The impact on CPI is significante, the direct impact on the May number is a contribution of 0.32%. And there, we should add the effects of the second round, the shift of increasing production costs to the final price of goods and services, which is more difficult to project, ”he said. Claudio Caprarulodirector of Analytics.

And he added: “In a context of high inflation fast update mechanisms. And due to the rising price of energy imports, the increase in the price of fuel at the pump is expected to continue. As a result, the transition could be larger, seeking scope for future increases. “

Because of the war between Russia and Ukraine, a barrel of Brent oil has risen to US $ 113 and diesel has risen 30% in the year. The increase in fuels is also due to other factors, such as increased demand after the recession during the 2020 pandemic. In April, demand for diesel in the local market reached its record high historically, according to the YPF.

“The recomposition of relative prices, in this case that of fuels, pushes prices up. This is certainly not the last fuel increase we will see in the year. The convergence of prices to a higher point puts pressure on fixed pricesbecause at the end of the day they are even more behind, “said Lucio Gary Mendezanalyst of EcoGo.

In that group, there is down payment, salary and electricity and gas bills. Starting this Tuesday, an average adjustment of 21% in service bills starting in June will be discussed. The debate will take place at hearings, which will end this Thursday and on that day the CPI for April will also be known. A fact that is “not much worse than March,” Martín Guzmán said on Monday.

For analysts, the fuel increase will have an impact of between 0.3 and 0.65 points on inflation in May. “May is a favorable month from time to time but regulated increase (fuel, prepaid, telecommunications) they laid an important floor and there parity adjustments are added, “he explained Isaiah Marinieconomist in Ecoviews.