The IMF began reviewing goals amid Kirchnerism’s pressure on Guzmán

At low, the IMF started review the program objectives agreed in March. These are the figures for the first quarter in financial, exchange and financial matters, compliance with which is necessary to obtain a new disbursement, although the restructuring of subsidies, inflation and the dollar is also being reviewed, in a global context of shock at prices and devaluations of emerging currencies.

This extraordinary scenario prompted the May advance of the first mission, scheduled for June 10. The staff, led by Ilan Goldfajn, must also descend this month in Buenos Aires, as it did. at the end of March in Chile. But on Martín Guzmán’s last visit to Washington, where he met Kristalina Georgieva three weeks ago, The review began and virtual meetings were agreed upon.

“Work is ongoing, including during the spring meetings of the IMF. We continue to work almost, including discussions on the initial review, and so far there are no plans to hold personal meetings,” confirmed the resources. In the same line, from the Ministry of Economy they confirmed that they work in daily contacts and that “It’s not a classic mission.”

Virtuality enables both Washington technicians and Guzmán’s team overcome the rising tension that would form a frontal mission in a hot climate by Vice President Cristina Kirchner’s aggression against the minister, the start of hearings to raise rates this Tuesday and the federal picket march asking for social assistance in a scenario with 37% poverty.

In this framework, Guzmán seeks to show the Fund its commitment to reduce the financial deficit, lower the financial issue and accumulate reserves. as expected Clarion, the minister surpassed three goals in the first quarter. In the first case, The collection of $ 120,000 million in March due to the difference in the value of inflation-adjusted bonds was key, an accounting “trick” -according to analysts- that the agency could limit from now on.

The head of the Treasury is more optimistic: he believes that the calculation is “unobjectionable”, in line with what has been done in previous years, and that, unlike the first and last quarter of the year, the second will show more low weight. of that item, then rose 1700% in March. The other exploding chapter was subsidies, with an increase of 350% that month. A rate that prevents their reduction, as promised by Guzmán, even with rate increases of 42.7% on average.

The IMF had already requested that in March recalibrate monetary policy, prioritizing infrastructure spending. Given the impact of the war on oil and fuel prices, the minister estimates that the agency has agreed to postpone the planned reduction of 0.6% of GDP, without abandoning its plan to implement the new tariff schedule and the Trying to stop it. spending in front of Kirchnerism’s legislative projects to expand it.

In Washington they are also reviewing takeoff reserve. In the face of the Central Bank’s difficulties in exploiting the foreign exchange record liquidated by the countryside and the record increase in imports, it is likely that staff will demand a higher devaluation rate, a policy that is causing of coalition tensions. . “The only thing it does is rise and keep inflation inertial,” Cristina Kirchner warned on Friday.

Ang Inflationary policy is another of the sensitive points to be examined and perhaps the weakest part of the program, with the permission of the organization. For this year, the expected ceiling is 48% per year, less than the 65% estimated by the market in a scenario where the government has begun to free up dollars, tariffs and fuel. Inflation is not a conditional target, it is an assumption. But it affects the calculation of goals.

Without those anchors to contain prices or enough dollars, the government will have to maneuver to prevent the economy from entering the recession. The IMF predicts expansion of between 3.5 and 4%, but analysts already They expect stagnation after the 1.9% decline the industry registered in March and 4.1% in construction.