Inflation: data for April is now known and is expected to be at 6% for the second consecutive month

The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) will announce this Thursday the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, which although the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, expected “it is lower than in March”, when it reaches this at 6 .7%, although for their part economists do not believe it can be found less than 6%.

According to the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) conducted by the Central Bank on financial market consultants, which is one of the last known in this regard, it showed that the estimate for retail inflation for April will be 5.6%.

The REM, conducted at the end of April between 41 entities, inflation is also expected to be 65.1% for the full year5.9 percentage points above the estimate they made at the end of March.

Guzmán looked forward to Tuesday Inflation is “lower” than in March, when participating in an event organized by the United States Chamber of Commerce in Argentina (AmCham).

For the head of the Palacio de Hacienda, inflation was a “historical problem” of Argentina, driven by a range of factors causing a “restless and restless” economy.

In this sense, he urged to “attack the multiple causes” that constitute it, because “the short -term is of little benefit if later we find ourselves again with restrictions and new crises.”

The Government is not losing hope and expects a strong decline for May to be closer to 4%. From the private sector and doubt that they can achieve that goal. The impact of rising fuel prices and the continuing rise in food prices imposes a strong floor for the coming months.

If the data for April as expected remains above 6% and in the next few months it will be at least, annualized inflation could reach 100%.

The perspective of consultants

According to the calculations of consultants, the data for April will continue to be high and be between 5.5% and 6.3%. For Orlando Ferreres it is at 6.3%; Analytica projects are 5.8%. LCG, Focus Market and EcoGo, on the other hand, agree and think relatively low, at a percentage between 5.5 and 5.8.

According to the Consumer Price Index prepared by consulting firm Orlando Ferreres & Asociados, the figure for April will be 6.3% and have year-on-year growth of 52.5%. Besides, core inflation grew at a monthly rate of 6.7%, marking an annual increase of 54.5%.

Ricardo Delgado, economist and president of Analytica consultancy, lowered his estimate below 6%, to 5.8%. “We saw some slowdown in the first few weeks but in the second fortnight, food prices rose again “indicated days ago.

For its part, Eco Go’s estimate, indicated an increase of 5.8%, with an annual accumulation of 57.8%. “April was a month strongly impacted by the drag left by March inflation, but where own factors were also combined ”, explained the consultant.

Buenos Aires inflation

On what background the data that INDEC will release this Thursday, due to the almost general increase in prices of goods and services, the Statistics and Census Office of the City of Buenos Aires reported that, On average, the increase in prices in April was 5.3%.

With this figure, in the first 4 months of the year the Buenos Aires Consumer Price Index accumulates an increase of 20.6% and 56% over 12 months.

They led the April rises clothing and footwear, transportation, and food and drink. Meanwhile, electricity, gas, water and the rate of rail transportation have not changed. Vegetables and legumes, on average, for seasonal reasons, dropped 1.8%.

With the highest incidence in the index, Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose on average in April, by 6.2%, 26.5% in just 4 months and 62.8% year-on-year.

The main increases for the month came from staple foods, such as increases in Meat and derivatives (7.4%), Bread and cereals (8.6%), Milk, dairy products and eggs (7.3%) and fish and seafood (10.3%). These increases would bring the family’s poverty basket to approximately $ 94,000/$ 95,000.

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