Inflation will mark the pulse of the markets
Argentine stocks know how to surf the part of the tidal wave it has formed in global markets the latest increase in United States Federal Reserve rates and the view that the body will have to deal with new upward adjustments to try to curb the country’s inflation.
Along with this, Argentina bonds have accumulated on the last five red wheels up 4.5%, hit by international uncertainty and the evidence that local inflation is relentless and aggravates all economic prospects. A) Yes, the country’s risk, measured by bank JP Morgan, will start the week on the edge of 1,900 pointsafter closing and Friday at 1,894 units.
Despite the fact that major Wall Street indices rose on Friday, they closed the week with losses: the S&P 500 fell 2.41% while the technological Nasdaq ended with a negative balance of 2.8%. on the contrary, the Buenos Aires stock market had one of the best returns in the region: Merval finished with a weekly increase of 7.9%, thus reaching 88,795 points. When measured in dollars, the improvement was 5.6%.
Last week, the annual inflation figure for the United States was released, which reached 8.3%, more than the market expected. At the same time, the acceleration of core inflation within the Argentine CPI worries analysts. So, analysts agree the volatility will be consistent in the coming weeks on world stock markets and that the consequences of domestic and imported inflation will continue this week marking the pulse of Argentina’s financial assets.
On the debt side, for Lucas Yatche, of Liebre Capital, “With great sensitivity to external factors, pressure is not giving way to higher -than -expected inflation in the United States and what it implies in expectations about rising interest rates, ”he said.
At the same time, Yatche added “The the poor week of accumulation of reserves, advances from BCRA towards the treasury and negative expectations about the fulfillment of objectives (fiscal, financial and reserves) put more pressure on local debt. For its part, equities are also affected and highly constrained by fly with quality (seeking quality) recently observed in global markets “.
Diego Martínez Burzaco, from Inviu agreed with the review about the future of the shares. “In a more dangerous world like the one we see today, where the dollar is rising against all world currencies, where there is an outflow of emerging capital towards the United States and there is a lot of volatility, this is not a favorable scenario for any emerging asset and that’s pretty painful in Argentina, ”he said.
However, he acknowledged that the papers of local companies could be “rescued” from the collapse of markets for two reasons: one, because they were out of the global interest and second, because of the low price they charged. uutos.
“In the minds of the international investor, Argentina does not appear on the investment map. Almost everything we see is a local investor who is betting on patience, risk exposure and a finally changing the political sign from 2023 “, said the economist, although he acknowledged: “It still seems very far from that, the prices are very low. When you see when there’s bigger potential, I think it’s in stocks more than bonds.”
For Santiago López Alfaro, of Patente Valores, a rally before the election could begin to unfold, based on the very low price of papers in Argentina that could present buying opportunities for investors with risky profiles. “It’s possible we’re in a rebound phase in the U.S. stock market, but with the Fed tightening, the fall could continue, so we need to be careful,” he said.
Within the panorama, López Alfaro is optimistic: “We see that bonds and shares have a certain floor: bonds, in particular, can not be lower than them. Shares are too cheap., To withstand in the aftermath of the Wall Street collapse, ”he said.
Source: Clarin
