The dollars enter one door and flee to another

The very favorable, altered relationship between the price of the products the country exports and the price of the goods it imports, that is, the so-called terms of trade, proves that here at least the metaphor if where the train has only once passed is strong skating in life. It also shows that unique opportunities may be repeatedthat of course It’s not the same as knowing how to take advantage of them.

We are talking about an indicator that is now benefiting Argentina like several times in history recently, otherwise, according to an INDEC series beginning in 1986 and crossing, mainly, foreign sales of the cereal-oilseed complex with industrial goods and energy supplies brought in from abroad.

The result of the equation shows a purchasing power of exports similar to or greater than in 2011-2012 underlying, as before, the international prices of soybeans, wheat and corn, say the big goods made of Argentina, flying high in the clouds. The great star of that universe is obviously soywhich in those years was quoted at 650 dollars per ton and is now between 616 and 611.

It is repeated, then, best on the first tailwind who blessed Kirchnerism with no similar government. The record of records at that time is still valid, 2011 overseas sales totaling US $ 83 billion with placements of soybeans and soybean derivatives not yet made.

Again backed by yuyito made famous by Cristina Kirchner, the same account raised US $ 78,000 million last year. Clarito, the train passed again via Argentina station.

The data that also comes out in INDEC explains a large part of the phenomenon. They said that 22% of the increase in sales in 2011 compared to 2010 was due to the so -called price effect and only 2%, for volume. And in 2021 versus 2020 the relationship is pretty much the same: 26% prices and 13%, half, values.

More of the same painting: in seven years from 2013 to 2020 exports did not reach US $ 70,000 million. They always stay in the US $ 60,000 million area, because of the fever goods or because the market has not experienced turmoil similar to the one currently coming from China’s invasion of Ukraine.

This is almost nothing to say, though it seems necessary to say: the key will accumulate as the tail blows and the terms of the trade play in their favor. Lay to have when the wind loosens and the hand rotates.

very much Little or nothing of this model existed during the first term of Cristina Kirchner’s presidency and part of the second, when annual trade surpluses of 9, 12, and up to 16,900 million dollars were recorded.

In 2013, the account shrank rapidly, so by the end of 2015 already marked by a deficit of $ 3.4 billion and almost nothing left in the mountain of dollars.

It has happened in the realm of the short -term, Kirchnerism ate up Central Bank reserves in volume and billions to pay off debt abroad. The compensation is to cover it with bonds similar to a pay-off, which is renewed every ten years and leaves the entity without interest. That is what deleveraging which still expresses and raises Cristina Kirchner.

It’s from the same movie a 40% devaluation in 2014 which proved useless, and a big money leakage lost in memory K. In the middle, the government put stocks in stocks, restricted and digitized imports, squeezed exporters and ended up with Central Bank reserves marked with a minus sign.

It’s not about throwing bad waves, but it happens External accounts are also not doing well in the current Kirchnerist era, despite soybean prices and company and trade terms re -enviable. Hard data says that between the start of 2020 and April 2022, the trade balance accumulated in excess of US $ 30,000 million.

A detail that is more than a detail adds that in the first quarter of this year the agro-export complex fixed sales that exceeded US $ 11,000 million. I mean, around US $ 1.3 billion higher over the same period in 2021.

And by the way, what does the Central box say about all this? Net reserves are stated, let’s say available, at US $ 5,300 million not yet enough to bank a full month of imports and that to a large extent comes, ultimately, from the Monetary Fund loan that replaced the stand-by of macrismo.

Obviously where you look, there is a large quill in BCRA where dollars spurt out of trade surplus. Strictly monitored, the IMF can not handle.

If there is no external financing, in La Chorrera we have interest on the loanwhat the entity itself spends indefinitely I’m trying to hide the blue without containing it, the money consumed sightseeing and other services, including the speculation that stimulates the direct relative of the general turmoil called the exchange rate gap, now at 70-80% with no visible remedy.

A not-so-rare phenomenon of this ship’s drifting has jumped on the unleashed advancement of imports. That is from note to record economic activity seems to flyas if GDP and industry records are not yet below 2019, 2018 and other periods that are not yet exactly outstanding.

INDEC data postings, as if to say something very concrete, imports in the first quarter registered growth of 41.6% against the first quarter of 2021 and 47.3% in April compared to April.

A few more comments are worth it. The first is we are talking about purchases in dollars but at the official price. Then, there are opportune and preventive operations outside the barriers. And third, that the electricity bill is still pre-winter and this represents only 12% of the total package.

Ang Argentina’s economy it is a structure very dependent of goods and input coming from outside, although not enough to twist the way the relationship cycle has been planted by specialists. That, on average, says that for every point that GDP grows, imports increase by three. And the current one, according to private estimates, says 1 GDP and 4.7 imports.

The point is that this dislocation directly hits the trade surplus, that is, the only real source of foreign exchange that the country has. Measured in four months, the 2022 versus 2021 balance shows a loss of US $ 1,170 million; expected throughout the year, pruning could reach US $ 4,000 million.

And since the need for foreign exchange governs many things, in this country with an exposed fracture at the top of government, an economic and social crisis, and bulletproof uncertainty, new restrictions on imports and foreign exchange spending are being sung. Direct, indirect and the kind that fits.

Also sung, the value of the move will hit the economic rebound. Some consultants have already done a year with final scores of 0.5%, 1.2 or 2%, that is, almost nothing by itself.

We’ll have a very bold cocktail or, if you prefer, a bolder than the present: stagnation leading to recession may a inflationary spiral shot at 70% or close to 70%. And another similar path of PASO and the presidential elections of 2023, according to forecasts of economists who are usually consulted from the government.