Minister of Economy Martín Guzmán, President Alberto Fernández and head of INDEC, Marco Lavagna.
In Argentina there are 47,327,407 inhabitants. Beyond the number reported on Thursday by INDEC, the new one is the number is larger than the last projection from INDEC before the census. The statistical body calculates that for this year the population will be 46,234,830 inhabitants.
yun difference of more than a million people This has a direct effect. Argentines are harder, if GDP per capita in dollars is taken into account. In the latest official data, it is calculated that GDP per capita for 2021 is $ 10,502 per occupant, approximately $ 250 less than expected. In other words, it is a cake that should be distributed to more people.
The important thing may not be that 250 dollars, but an affirmation, if necessary, that in terms of the wealth of each inhabitant, we were almost level in 2010, that is, 12 years ago. A decade (with yapa) is gone.
Stagnation is regression. Argentina historically has the highest GDP per capita in the region, head to head with Uruguay. The current data is discouraging. Chile is over 16,000 dollars per inhabitant and Uruguay is over 15,000 (see infographic).
Argentina’s 2021 GDP per capita is almost 30% below the highest peak, which according to World Bank statistics was reached in 2017, with 14,613 dollars per inhabitant. Then came the economic crisis of 2018, the devaluation and all that. The pandemic floor – $ 8,579- is rare, but it’s still clear that it will be hard to recover from 2017 levels and beyond reduce distances to the leading countries of the region.
Once the population data is known, various economists warn about the impact of the figure in relation to GDP per capita.
“47.3 million people according to preliminary data from the 2022. Census. This is more than any current population estimate. In other words, GDP per capita has fallen more than thought in the past decade. The pieces of cake for each are gradually dwindling. “He pointed out Ivan Carrino.
In the same way, Eduardo Levy Yeyati said. “If these projections can be verified, over the past 10 years, GDP per capita has fallen more than we thought.
Emiliano Anselmi noted: “We think GDP per capita in 2021 will be 12.8% lower than in 2011. It will be 14.4% lower.”
What remains of the evidence, moreover, is that in the last decade Argentina has had one of the worst performances in the region, surpassed only from now on by Venezuela and also by Brazil and Colombia. Compared to 2010, Argentines’ GDP per capita grew by only 1.1%. Chileans grew 25% and Uruguay 28%. Brazil surprises -with data from 2020- with a 33%decline, certainly reduced to a rebound in 2021.
It is true that the exchange delay observed in the cycle makes us Argentines who are perhaps artificially rich or – when there is a strong devaluation – harder than in reality. But the trend towards stagnation is clear.
Since the collapse of convertibility, Argentina’s economy has stood up for closure more and more, punishing both exports and imports.
The world noticed it. “decouple” of Argentina. An example: Foreign direct investment.
In the 90’s Argentina annually gets about 20% of the dollars that “sink” in South America and Mexico. The data provided annually in its reports by the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) speaks for themselves.
In 1999, that is, at the end of the Carlos Menem government and at the beginning of Fernando De La Rúa -and with the promise to continue convertibility- revenue of 23,579 million dollars was registered, out of a total for the region of 85,571 million dollars. Number not found. Not before or after. In other words, that year 27.6% of the dollars that entered the region went to Argentina.
The collapse of foreign direct investment so far in the 21st century is, hopefully, more of a concern. In the last decade, Argentina has had to settle in getting, on average, almost 5% of FDI came to the region. In this variable, the country, which has always been on the podium of the most favored, is now behind Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru.
Economic stagnation data is visible. But still we have to wait for other information to be collected by census takers. For example, whether or not the number of populations with access to running water and sewage networks has increased. What happened to access to the gas and electricity network. How is the situation of access to housing today and what is the quality of houses. The level of population study years.
The economic performance shown by Argentina since the last census -2010- leaving little room for optimism.
Source: Clarin
