Martin Guzman and Miguel Angel Pesce
Despite the relatively calm in the foreign exchange market and the record inflow of dollars per agriculture, the Central Bank will live instantaneously in the next 38 days. The monetary authority will have to show by the end of June whether it has been able to reach its quarterly accumulation goal of US $ 2,900 million in reserves and to date, it has barely reached half.
The organization led by Miguel Pesce closed last Friday a positive week due to its interventions in the foreign exchange market, by buying US $ 40 million. In this wayhas bought more than US $ 770 million so far in Maya figure he hasn’t seen since the same month of 2021. The data is bitter: at the time, the organization earned US $ 2,100 million.
Now, Central is not only far from repeating last year’s performance, but is also under pressure to improve its buying position: By June 30, you must collect US $ 1,244 million, which puts a daily floor of US $ 59 million into your purchases, considering the three national holidays, it will take place over the next six weeks. A brand that becomes ambitious within the context of increased demand for foreign currency.
According to private calculations, in April lExports reached US $ 8,000 million, their highest level seen in current dollars in nearly 10 years. “There is no doubt that, from the point of view of prices, Argentina is enjoying exceptionally favorable circumstances, which, however, are not reflected in a net supply of dollars,” explain analysts from Delphos consultancy .
The main reason for this dynamic is the maintenance of the exchange rate gapwhich “promotes imports of capital goods, consumption and vehicles and prevents the export of goods and services along with increasing demand for fuels to meet the energy needs of an economy that recovered the level of activity before the pandemic ”, according to what they taught Delphos.
Since the goal of accumulating reserves seems more stringent than in the past few months, the City believes that to achieve it, the Central Bank will once again close the tap on importers. “The IMF has talked that the goals cannot be changedyes BCRA has no choice but to tighten the trap“, said economist Fernando Marull, from FMyA.
“For the next few months agriculture will begin to slow the liquidation rate, and energy imports will increaser. Therefore, the monthly trade balance will be somewhat lower, and since the Central Bank will have to buy reserves, it is likely that the adjustment will come from CEPO restrictions, both on imports of Goods, Services and Tourism, such as of debt repayment, ”Marull explained.
Here opens up another problem for the Government’s economic team: forecasting achieving the recovery of the agreed reserve would mean greater restrictions on import demand, which could further limit economic growth. Last week the data for March was released: compared to 2021, activity grew 6.1% in the first quarter, although it contracted 0.7% from what was seen last month.
The lack of dollars will be the limit to economic growth this year. In the Government they believe that GDP could grow between 7% and 10% this year, but for that “an additional US $ 30,000 million will be needed by the Central Bank,” official sources told this newspaper. Therefore, forecasts are now starting to cut.
For Guido Lorenzo, from the LCG consultancy, the absence of this “slowdown” also poses other problems for the economic program: “In the Government it assumes that this goal is very likely not meet and the fiscal will be challenging as well. The problem that comes with it for economic policy is that it has to be more focused on following what has been agreed in terms of the way to achieve the goals, “he explained.
Lorenzo added: “It must show that the real exchange rate is not falling and that the interest rate has exceeded expected inflation. Without it, it would be difficult to justify an Argentina waiver request before the agency. . “
Source: Clarin
