The blue dollar has risen $ 6 since the beginning of the month
The blue dollar advanced to a new step on Tuesday and returned to $ 208. This way, the green ticket is captured in the informal market $ 7 pesos more expensive than the end of April. However, if you look at its trend up to this year, it looks cheap: while inflation has accumulated an increase of just over 23% in the first quarter of 2022, informal price remains “frozen” relative to value. its in its January. years.
Even the financial dollars, which on Tuesday also continued their upward path and advanced 0.6%, were also far behind due to seasonal inflation. Liquid cash, which stands at $ 212.61, is accumulating a 5.2% increase so far in 2022; lower than that shown by the MEP dollar, or stock market, which on Tuesday was trading just above $ 211, an increase of 6.7% in the first five months of the year.
Analysts are starting to wonder if these quotes can continue for a long time more ironed. “Despite the recent rebound in the CCL, we maintain that position the exchange rate is still cheap“, says Lucas Yatche, of Liebre Capital.” The inflationary speed positions it close to the lowest level in real terms, and the recent decoupling in the broad monetary base gives us a signal that the CCL should -adjust sooner or later, “he added..
The price that tries to follow more closely the passage of other prices in the economy is the official dollar. the unity, derived from the sum of the official exchange rate and associated taxes, reached $ 205.43indicating an increase of 15.8% in these first months.
The central bank should make sure the exchange rate does not catch up with rising prices. However, while most City consultants estimate that inflation will be around 5% in May, the fiscal authority only allows its devaluation rate to run at 3.3% per month. On Tuesday, the wholesale dollar ended at $ 119.11, up 0.73 cents so far this week.
Ensuring that the exchange rate remains competitive is key to maintaining dollar income from agriculture. So far this year, the agro-export complex has liquidated US $ 14.4 billion and in the first weeks of May alone US $ 3.374 million has entered the single, free-exchange market. This is the best monthly score since the start of 2022.
Despite this, the Central Bank is unable to utilize these revenues to meet the purpose of accumulating reserves agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund. The body headed by Miguel Pesce bought US $ 150 million on Monday and added purchases worth US $ 918 million on the month, but still less than the US $ 2,100 million it sold last year.
Source: Clarin
