From “I was wrong” by Janet Yellen in the United States to “I want to go” by Lorenzino in Argentina

“I think I was wrong on the path that inflation would take.”

This is the sentence of Yanet Yellen, Secretary of the US Treasury, to Wolf Blitzer, journalist and presenter of CNN on “The Situation Room” last Tuesday. Blitzer reminded the economist on camera of his 2021 comments, that inflation represented only a “small risk” despite warnings from colleagues.

“I was wrong”the official admitted.

In Argentina, the closest thing to an economy minister was such a statement when Eleni Varvitsioti, a journalist for Financial Timeshe asked Hernán Lorenzino, Cristina Kirchner’s former Economy Minister, how much inflation was. The official stammered a “I want to go”.

Yellen is a major player in the global economy. It is a case that mixes the academic path with the professional one. A doctor at Yale and a professor emeritus at UCLA-Berkeley, his background is Keynesian. She was a disciple of James Tobin, Nobel Laureate in Economics, and is married to George Akerlof, another Nobel Laureate in Economics. He worked for nearly 30 years at the Federal Reserve (Central Bank of the United States) and which he led between 2014 and 2018. She is currently secretary of the Treasury, equivalent to the office of Minister of Economy.

“There have been major unforeseen shocks to the economy that have skyrocketed energy and food prices and supply bottlenecks that have severely affected our economy. which I, at the time, did not fully understand, but which we now recognize“was the explanation provided by Yellen to CNN.

For the economist, cost tensions from the war in Ukraine and excess demand at the end of the pandemic will disappear over time. even though she herself admitted that she believed it would happen faster and now, therefore, we will have to waitin part, due to the Fed’s restrictive policy.

Yellen was interviewed after President Joe Biden and she, in person, received nothing more and nothing less than Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in the Oval Room of the White House. It was this week. The day before, Biden himself, in a letter to The Wall Street newspaperShe said “The Federal Reserve has the primary responsibility for lowering inflation” and two days later he affirmed it “Inflation won’t go down anytime soon”.

The relationship between presidents or economic ministers and central banks generally involves tensions. Especially when the monetary authority is faced with a rate hike process as is happening now in most countries (a chapter that will be tackled with explicit scenes from the world and Argentina in the “Nonfiction Economy” next Sunday so that you can reserve your copy). But in Argentina, the Minister of Economy ‘is’ also put under pressure by inflation.

—I have a very simple question but it seems very complicated these days. How much is inflation in Argentina today? – Varvitsiotis asked Lorenzino in April 2013. The journalist had gone to the country to shoot a documentary on the 2001 crisis. The dialogue was filmed.

The Indec would measure inflation that year at 10.9%. The same level as in 2012. For the consultant Buenos Aires City it would give 26.6% (he had given 21.8% the previous year). The IMF had stopped publishing the official body’s data and warned in its publications that the official statistics had been questioned by private analysts.

—The official statistics record inflation month after month. The only public office with the technical capacity to measure statistics is Indec, which is under the Ministry of Economy.

“But how much is it?”

– I believe that the index accumulated in the last twelve months is 10.2%.

—The IMF has said it will impose sanctions on Argentina for publishing these statistics. What are you going to do?

At that moment the camera focuses on Lorenzino’s face, who fixes his gaze on Varvitsiotis.

“Look, I still insist …” the minister says.

But immediately he stands up and turns his face back, looking for his assistant and saying: “Can I cut it?” Look at Varvitsiotis again and almost begging launches:

“Can I cut it for a minute?”

With the camera off but the microphones on, the minister launches:

“I want to go, yes, I want to go.” Besides, talking about statistics in Argentina is complex, okay? I prefer to stay with the last answer and not delve further into the subject.

After a while, the camera turns on again. Now a voice is heard, that of one of his assistants.

– Talking about inflation when we don’t talk about it with the Argentine media …

Yellen talks about inflation. And he admitted his mistake in his prediction. Lorenzino directly said “I want to go” when asked. And he respected. former minister today he lives in Puerto Madryn, where he has opened a brewery. “I’m off the radar. I read the newspaper every day but I dedicate myself to something else”he answered Clarione for this note.