The value of soy grows strongly in Chicago and breaks the historical record

The price of soybeans is trading higher for the fourth consecutive day in the Chicago market and breaks the all-time high. This Thursday it grows by nearly US $ 14 and reaches US $ 653, thus surpassing the historic US $ 651 threshold of 4 September 2012. Thus, the value of soybeans has increased by 31% since the beginning of the year.

The gains are based on traders’ expectation to see tomorrow new adjustment of closing stocks in the United States 2021/2022 in the USDA monthly report. This possibility is supported by the good sales of the previous weeks and the slowdown in exports from Brazil, according to Granar.

To this line of reasoning, the weekly report on United States exports, in this case for the segment from May 27 to June 2, given that the USDA recorded 2021/2022 soybean sales of 429,900 tons, above the 111,600 tons of the previous report and within the range expected by operators, including 100,000 and 500,000 tons.

According to the consultant, sales for 2022/2023 were 595,300 tons, up from last week’s 284,000 tons and within the range expected by private companies, between 200,000 and 700,000 tons.

This is good news for the government at a time when dollars are in short supply and there are problems importing key supplies. In any case, it should be remembered that the producer receives only 32% of the full price due to the withholding tax -33% – and the exchange gap.

The country’s main export complex over the past year has been soybeanswhich achieved a total of $ 23,719 million in overseas shipments, exceeding the 2020 threshold by 62% and recording its best performance in history against the previous record of 2014, with $ 20,814 million, according to the Rosario Stock Exchange. .

In this way, the soybean complex alone accounted for 30% of Argentina’s exports in 2021, increasing its share from 2020 (27%) and reaching its highest share since 2016 (33% in that year).

And for this year, according to the same entity, the latest projection of exports of the main agro-industrial products amounts to 41,499 million dollars, 3,450 million dollars compared to 2021.

And the soybean complex will once again be the most important. The entity expects it to generate $ 24,009 million in foreign currency, $ 381 million more than a year ago. This is despite the fact that production has decreased by 12% compared to the last cycle, when 48 million tons were threshed. So heThe increase in prices will compensate for the production losses.

In particular, soybean meal (the main export product) would contribute with 12,390 million dollars; soybean oil, $ 8.176 million; beans, $ 1,738 million; and biodiesel, $ 1,705 million.