Inflation in May closed above 5%, driven by food, clothing and prepaid cards

Next Tuesday will be the day Indec releases May inflation. If the private screenings are met, It will be the third consecutive month with a consumer price index (CPI) above 5%even if everything indicates that this time it will be less than 6% in April.

Minister Martín Guzmán highlighted yesterday that official data indicate that the May index will be lower than that recorded in April. “We see a May with a lower inflation rate than in Aprilbut obviously any number of these we are talking about are high, problematic for the functioning of our society and our economy, “he said.

Private consultants’ estimates for May range from 4.7% to 5.4%.

For the Center for Economic Studies of Orlando Ferreres and Associates Inflation in May was 4.7% monthly and recorded year-over-year growth of 54.5%. To this extent, core inflation increased at a monthly rate of 5.2%, marking an annual increase of 57.7%.

CPI Ecolatina rose 5.2% in May. In this way, it accumulated 28.1% in the first five months of the year and showed a year-on-year variation of 59.2% compared to the same month of 2021. Within, the most evolving chapters were Medical assistance and Healthcare expenses (7.2%), Clothing (6.3%) and Education (5.8%).

For EcoGo inflation last month was 5.3%, the same as for the GBA C&T consultancy.

The consultant of María Castiglioni and Camilo Tiscornia points out that in May, Clothing was the item with the greatest increase, “a typical seasonal behavior but enhanced by the inflationary context”.

It was followed by Education, “due to the delay in the adaptation in the schools of the province of Buenos Aires”. Even health “has returned to show the result of combining the sustained increase in medicines with a new adjustment of prepaid”.

For C&T, Food and beverages increased 5.4% monthly. In Transportation, the increase in fuel and car prices weighed heavily, and in CABA the increase in taxis that took place in mid-April.

“Inflation for workers in May was 5.4% and adds 30.4% in the first 5 months of 2022”, according to the measurement of the Institute of Statistics of Workers (IET) of the Metropolitan University (UMET) and of the Center for Coordination and Development (CCD). “Today it is almost a given that 2022 will be the most inflationary year since 1991since that year the increase in prices had not exceeded 60% “.

“In the past 12 months, inflation has been 62%. Against this backdrop, economic recovery can be put in check”Warned the director general of the CCD, former minister Nicolás Trotta.

“The high-frequency data of the last few weeks – which allow for daily monitoring of food inflation – show that the deceleration in prices took place between the end of April and the beginning of May, and that in the second half of May this deceleration seems to stopping in the 5% per month range, “he said.

“For June, we expect inflation to be above 5% again.where the expected increase in public service tariffs will impact along with other regulated prices (such as prepaid), along with the wage driver, which will remain active after the joint negotiations, “said economist Santiago Manoukian, of Ecolatina.

“In this way, inflation in the second quarter would close slightly above the accumulated increase in the first three months, which was 16.1%,” he added.

“The evolution of the first semester leaves a high plan for the year: we estimate that inflation will close at around 70% yoy in 2022, also expecting a slight slowdown in prices in the last six months of the year, “Manoukian said.

The Central Bank’s latest Survey of Market Expectations (REM) showed the spiral that prices bring: month-to-month inflation forecasts for 2022 they went from 65% to 72.5%.

The inflationary spiral extends to 2023: now analysts are expecting 60% per year, when until a month ago they were expecting 50.5%. And for 2024 the estimate reaches 47.8%.

AQ