Argentina’s exports grow less than those of other countries in the region

Of

Marcelo Elizondo

Owner of the DNI Consultant

According to the expectations deriving from the high international prices of products exported from Argentina, exports of goods from Argentina in 2022 will reach an annual result that will be a historic record.

Among the various forecasts, the Borsa del Rosario (BCR), in the month of May, estimated that of Argentina could export a total of $ 87,182 million in 2022. This is approximately $ 3 billion above the record achieved in 2011.

That figure had never been surpassed after 2011.

The main reason for this result in 2022 compared to 2021 will be the increase in international pricesThis is demonstrated by the result of the first quarter of this year according to INDEC. The expected results for the annual total of 2022, in fact, suppose to reach a figure higher than the maximum record reached to date, reached with exports in 2011, when 84,051 million were added according to the data recorded by the WTO in its data. from country to year.

This new figure expected for 2022, which could be reached if the current conditions of the planet are maintained (in which the effects of the effects of the war in Ukraine on raw materials stand out), and which would mean an increase of almost 12% in relation to the results of 2021, actually continues to be affected (considering various reasons that explain the process) by prices rather than volumes.

Thus, in 2021 Argentina enjoyed a price index for its exports that is the highest from the previous (even higher) highs of 2014, 2013, 2012 and 2011.

In 2021 Argentina had exported 13% more volumes than in 2020 (the year in which there was a strong impact of the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on world international trade). In 2020, measured in volumes, exports were 116 million tons, while in 2021 they reached 130 million tons.

Now then: measured according to the INDEC export quantity index, lExports in 2021 were even lower than those of 2019, those of 2011 (record in quantity), and those of 2010, those of 2008 and also those of 2007.

Argentina rises in the global comparison

It should be noted that Argentina has actually recently accompanied a global global recovery in its foreign trade results, so its behavior, in the year-over-year increase, has not been exceptional. It was part of the context, which he knew how to follow. This is: Argentina has generally moved in line with the international trend.

Because Argentina has not yet recovered the dynamism achieved by its neighbors it is explained that the participation of Argentine exports in the world total does not recover the levels of the beginning of the 21st century.

Argentine exports of goods and services (even with the good result of the previous year) just exceeded 0.3% of the world total in 2021. They totaled 87,293 million dollars (goods plus services), which represents 0.306% of the total planetary.

Now, if the maximum record for exports of goods is reached (as expected) in our country in the current 2022, it must be said that Argentina will be able to surpass the highest records obtained in the previous decade later by the vast majority of Countries in the region, which had already surpassed those high scores of the beginning of the second decade before Argentina.

In other words: upon arrival Argentina to surpass its best historical signs later than its neighborsthe performance (justified mainly by better prices) shows some delay in achieving what others have achieved before, in the region.

Therefore, while all exports from the region are projected to be higher in 2022 than in 2021 (due to the high incidence of international prices): Argentina’s (commodity) exports only recently and for the first time will exceed the ceiling of 2011.

Those from Brazil have already reached 285.806 million (in 2021), surpassing their previous all-time high reached in 2013 (250.556 million dollars). Those of Mexico also in 2021 have already reached their maximum record (with 504.808 million dollars), surpassing the previous maximum score (which had been reached in 2014 with 411.591 million). Chile, for its part, achieved $ 98,814 million in exports in 2021, surpassing the previous record of $ 80,074 million in 2012.

There is more example. Those of Peru, 60,629 million dollars, were the largest in the history of the previous year, surpassing the previous record of 43,670 million dollars in 2013; Paraguay’s, $ 15,161 million in 2021, was also the highest in last year’s history, surpassing their previous record. And there are more similar cases, such as Bolivia and Uruguay.

Only Colombia and Ecuador (there is no data from Venezuela) had not yet managed to match their previous high (nor had Argentina reached it even with the 2021 rise), leaving those countries among the few laggards in resuming exports. and showing – in this way – a slowness in binding the tendencies of its neighbors.

The world had reached the record of total exports in 2018 (it was the highest until the previous year with 25.02 billion dollars). This shows that until 2018 it had continued to grow after the 2011/2012 results, which were (in 2011) a record for Argentina (after Argentina started to decline). Argentina’s neighboring countries also had continued export growth (as shown above in the reference to the record-breaking beats for each country in the region) after 2011, which Argentina has not done.

But already in 2021 the world reached an all-time export record again accumulated totals (over 28 billion dollars, according to UNCTAD data) something that Argentina has not yet achieved (it should arrive in the current 2022).

conclusion

a) It is positive that Argentina continues with the increase in exports following the international trend.

b) However, Argentina shows a delay that comes later than its neighbors (surpassing the previous record) which shows some difficulty in reacting to the increased demand c) That, therefore, Argentina has to reconsider the conditions of generation of the exportable supply in which, above all, the following appear as difficulties to be corrected: – Macroeconomic instability.

– The randomness deriving from the high uncertainty in the corporate environment.

– The institutional weakness that prevents the full validity of subjective rights.

– The validity of a strongly interventionist, obstructive and regulatory legal / economic regulatory system, which threatens innovation and production-commercial modernization.

– The lack of international instruments linking Argentina to third markets (international economic or commercial treaties that create more appropriate conditions for market integration).